bayesRatings

Yankees at Astros

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final NYY 12 – HOU 4
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY31010340012130
HOU0101002004111
Team box
NYY·HOU
13
hits
11
4
home runs
2
6
walks
2
4
strikeouts
11
152
pitches thrown
172
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY3-4314
Yainer DiazHOU2-4112
Jose CaballeroNYY2-4112
Ben RiceNYY2-5312
Braden ShewmakeHOU1-2111
Ryan McMahonNYY1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will Warren (W)NYY6.07216
Lance McCullers Jr. (L)HOU5.06543

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +10
NYY +10
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · NYY 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 55%, HOU 45% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
NYY by 1.1
Expected score
NYY 5.3 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
9.5
YankeesThe matchupAstros
−120Our fair odds+120
5.3Expected runs4.2
+0.24Power rating−0.03
4.9Runs / game5.3
3.4Allowed / game5.8
7.2Hits / game8.8
1.40Home runs / game1.19
4.7Walks drawn / game4.3
16−9Season record10−16
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · HOU chance
Our model fair54.6%45.4%
Kalshi61.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12055%−16161.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+12045%+12943.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.1
NYYNew York Yankees−1.1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.1 expected
New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byHOU wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more46%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more36%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 22 Kstarted
HOULance McCullers Jr. SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.78 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·HOU
Apr 23 at BOS
last game
Apr 22 at CLE
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
NYY·HOU
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.9
runs / game
5.3
3.4
runs allowed / game
5.8
16−9
season record
10−16
8−5
home record
7−6
8−4
away record
3−10
W6
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
4−6
7.2
hits / game
8.8
1.40
home runs / game
1.19
4.7
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.52
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

NYY · HOU · 30 days
New York YankeesHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Sep 4, 2025at HOUNYY 8 − 4
Sep 3, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 7
Sep 2, 2025at HOUNYY 7 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at NYYHOU 7 − 1
Aug 9, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at NYYHOU 5 − 3
May 9, 2024at NYYHOU 4 − 3
May 8, 2024at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 7, 2024at NYYNYY 10 − 3
Mar 31, 2024at HOUNYY 4 − 3

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Apr 23at BOS4 − 2W
Apr 22at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 21at BOS4 − 0W
Apr 19vs KC7 − 0W
Apr 18vs KC13 − 4W
Apr 17vs KC4 − 2W
Apr 16vs LAA4 − 11L
Apr 15vs LAA5 − 4W
Apr 14vs LAA1 − 7L
Apr 13vs LAA11 − 10W

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 22at CLE2 − 0W
Apr 21at CLE5 − 8L
Apr 20at CLE9 − 2W
Apr 19vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 18vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 17vs STL4 − 9L
Apr 16vs COL2 − 3L
Apr 15vs COL3 − 1W
Apr 14vs COL7 − 6W
Apr 13at SEA2 − 6L