bayesRatings

Yankees at Astros

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 6:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final NYY 8 – HOU 3
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY0010103128120
HOU100001001370
Team box
NYY·HOU
12
hits
7
3
home runs
2
10
walks
2
8
strikeouts
9
131
pitches thrown
189
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose CaballeroNYY3-5111
Austin WellsNYY2-3112
Carlos CorreaHOU2-3211
Ben RiceNYY3-4101
Christian WalkerHOU1-4111
Trent GrishamNYY1-3211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan WeathersNYY5.16204
Fernando Cruz (W)NYY0.20012
Mike BurrowsHOU5.05238
Kai-Wei Teng (L)HOU0.12100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +6
NYY +6
123456789
largest lead: HOU 1 · NYY 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 56%, HOU 44% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
NYY by 1.3
Expected score
NYY 5.5 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
9.7
YankeesThe matchupAstros
−125Our fair odds+125
5.5Expected runs4.2
+0.27Power rating−0.04
5.2Runs / game5.2
3.4Allowed / game6.0
7.5Hits / game8.9
1.50Home runs / game1.22
4.7Walks drawn / game4.3
17−9Season record10−17
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · HOU chance
Our model fair55.6%44.4%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12556%−15460.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+12544%+12444.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.3
NYYNew York Yankees−1.3our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.3 expected
New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byHOU wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 2.66 ERA, 25 Kstarted
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.31 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·HOU
Apr 24 at HOU
last game
Apr 24 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
NYY·HOU
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.2
runs / game
5.2
3.4
runs allowed / game
6.0
17−9
season record
10−17
8−5
home record
7−7
9−4
away record
3−10
W7
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.9
1.50
home runs / game
1.22
4.7
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.50
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

NYY · HOU · 31 days
New York YankeesHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Apr 24at HOUNYY 12 − 4
Sep 4, 2025at HOUNYY 8 − 4
Sep 3, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 7
Sep 2, 2025at HOUNYY 7 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at NYYHOU 7 − 1
Aug 9, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at NYYHOU 5 − 3
May 9, 2024at NYYHOU 4 − 3
May 8, 2024at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 7, 2024at NYYNYY 10 − 3

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Apr 24at HOU12 − 4W
Apr 23at BOS4 − 2W
Apr 22at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 21at BOS4 − 0W
Apr 19vs KC7 − 0W
Apr 18vs KC13 − 4W
Apr 17vs KC4 − 2W
Apr 16vs LAA4 − 11L
Apr 15vs LAA5 − 4W
Apr 14vs LAA1 − 7L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 24vs NYY4 − 12L
Apr 22at CLE2 − 0W
Apr 21at CLE5 − 8L
Apr 20at CLE9 − 2W
Apr 19vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 18vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 17vs STL4 − 9L
Apr 16vs COL2 − 3L
Apr 15vs COL3 − 1W
Apr 14vs COL7 − 6W