bayesRatings

Red Sox at Orioles

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 11:05 AM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final BOS 17 – BAL 1
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS030130001017171
BAL000000100163
Team box
BOS·BAL
17
hits
6
3
home runs
0
5
walks
2
7
strikeouts
9
138
pitches thrown
201
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS2-4215
Andruw MonasterioBOS3-6314
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4313
Connor WongBOS1-3103
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS3-5201
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS2-5201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Garrett Crochet (W)BOS6.03027
Trevor Rogers (L)BAL1.24322

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +16
BOS +16
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · BOS 16lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 49%, BAL 51% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.6 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
8.9
Red SoxThe matchupOrioles
+103Our fair odds−103
4.6Expected runs4.3
+0.02Power rating−0.04
3.7Runs / game4.7
4.8Allowed / game4.5
7.5Hits / game8.1
0.58Home runs / game1.23
3.3Walks drawn / game4.1
9−17Season record13−13
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · BAL chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:05 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10349%+10548.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10351%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.3our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byBAL wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSGarrett Crochet SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 11.77 ERA, 15 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.32 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·BAL
Apr 24 at BAL
last game
Apr 24 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
BOS·BAL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.7
runs / game
4.7
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
9−17
season record
13−13
5−8
home record
7−6
4−9
away record
6−7
L4
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.1
0.58
home runs / game
1.23
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.58
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

BOS · BAL · 31 days
Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 5−5
Apr 24at BALBAL 10 − 3
Aug 28, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at BALBOS 5 − 0
Aug 25, 2025at BALBOS 4 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at BOSBAL 4 − 3
Aug 18, 2025at BOSBAL 6 − 3
May 25, 2025at BOSBAL 5 − 1
May 24, 2025at BOSBAL 2 − 1
May 24, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 5

BOS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Apr 24at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 23vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 22vs NYY1 − 4L
Apr 21vs NYY0 − 4L
Apr 20vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 19vs DET2 − 6L
Apr 18vs DET1 − 4L
Apr 17vs DET1 − 0W
Apr 15at MIN9 − 5W
Apr 14at MIN0 − 6L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 24vs BOS10 − 3W
Apr 22at KC8 − 6W
Apr 21at KC5 − 6L
Apr 20at KC7 − 5W
Apr 19at CLE4 − 8L
Apr 18at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 17at CLE6 − 4W
Apr 16at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 15vs ARI5 − 8L
Apr 14vs ARI3 − 4L