bayesRatings

Astros at Orioles

MLB · Thursday, Apr 30 · 2:55 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final HOU 11 – BAL 5
← MLB / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU51041000011140
BAL000300101562
Team box
HOU·BAL
14
hits
6
2
home runs
0
3
walks
8
7
strikeouts
14
169
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yordan AlvarezHOU3-4311
Cam SmithHOU1-4113
Dustin HarrisHOU1-4103
Leody TaverasBAL1-3102
Christian WalkerHOU2-5001
Isaac ParedesHOU2-5201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Lance McCullers Jr. (W)HOU6.02349
Brandon Young (L)BAL4.09422

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +10
HOU +10
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · HOU 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 48%, BAL 52% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.9 – 4.5 BAL
Expected total
9.4
AstrosThe matchupOrioles
+107Our fair odds−107
4.9Expected runs4.5
−0.05Power rating−0.06
5.1Runs / game4.5
6.0Allowed / game4.9
8.8Hits / game8.0
1.27Home runs / game1.21
4.1Walks drawn / game3.8
11−19Season record14−15
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · BAL chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10748%————
BALBaltimore Orioles−10752%————
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros−0.3our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byBAL wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more39%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOULance McCullers Jr. SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 9.42 ERA, 11 Kstarted
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·BAL
Apr 30 at BAL
last game
Apr 30 vs HOU
same day
days of rest
same day
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
HOU·BAL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.1
runs / game
4.5
6.0
runs allowed / game
4.9
11−19
season record
14−15
8−8
home record
8−8
3−11
away record
6−7
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.0
1.27
home runs / game
1.21
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.33
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

HOU · BAL · 36 days
Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 5−5
Apr 28at BALBAL 5 − 3
Aug 24, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at BALHOU 9 − 8
Aug 22, 2025at BALHOU 10 − 7
Aug 21, 2025at BALHOU 7 − 2
Aug 17, 2025at HOUBAL 12 − 0
Aug 16, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 4
Aug 15, 2025at HOUBAL 7 − 0
Aug 25, 2024at BALHOU 6 − 3
Aug 24, 2024at BALBAL 3 − 2

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 28at BAL3 − 5L
Apr 26vs NYY7 − 4W
Apr 25vs NYY3 − 8L
Apr 24vs NYY4 − 12L
Apr 22at CLE2 − 0W
Apr 21at CLE5 − 8L
Apr 20at CLE9 − 2W
Apr 19vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 18vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 17vs STL4 − 9L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 28vs HOU5 − 3W
Apr 26vs BOS3 − 5L
Apr 25vs BOS1 − 17L
Apr 24vs BOS10 − 3W
Apr 22at KC8 − 6W
Apr 21at KC5 − 6L
Apr 20at KC7 − 5W
Apr 19at CLE4 − 8L
Apr 18at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 17at CLE6 − 4W