bayesRatings

Red Sox at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final BOS 5 – BAL 3
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000032000570
BAL000011010361
Team box
BOS·BAL
7
hits
6
1
home runs
2
5
walks
1
6
strikeouts
7
122
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gunnar HendersonBAL2-4112
Samuel BasalloBAL2-4111
Willson ContrerasBOS1-3112
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4101
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-4001
Marcelo MayerBOS1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connelly Early (W)BOS6.24214
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00002
Kyle Bradish (L)BAL5.04343

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +4
BOS +4
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · BOS 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 51%, BAL 49% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
BOS by 0.6
Expected score
BOS 4.8 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.1
Red SoxThe matchupOrioles
−103Our fair odds+103
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.06
4.1Runs / game4.5
4.6Allowed / game5.0
7.8Hits / game8.0
0.67Home runs / game1.19
3.3Walks drawn / game4.0
10−17Season record13−14
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · BAL chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10351%+11446.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10349%−14258.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.6
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.6our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.6 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byBAL wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more32%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·BAL
Apr 25 at BAL
last game
Apr 25 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
BOS·BAL
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.1
runs / game
4.5
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.0
10−17
season record
13−14
5−8
home record
7−7
5−9
away record
6−7
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.0
0.67
home runs / game
1.19
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.59
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

BOS · BAL · 32 days
Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 5−5
Apr 25at BALBOS 17 − 1
Apr 24at BALBAL 10 − 3
Aug 28, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at BALBOS 5 − 0
Aug 25, 2025at BALBOS 4 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at BOSBAL 4 − 3
Aug 18, 2025at BOSBAL 6 − 3
May 25, 2025at BOSBAL 5 − 1
May 24, 2025at BOSBAL 2 − 1

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 25at BAL17 − 1W
Apr 24at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 23vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 22vs NYY1 − 4L
Apr 21vs NYY0 − 4L
Apr 20vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 19vs DET2 − 6L
Apr 18vs DET1 − 4L
Apr 17vs DET1 − 0W
Apr 15at MIN9 − 5W

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 25vs BOS1 − 17L
Apr 24vs BOS10 − 3W
Apr 22at KC8 − 6W
Apr 21at KC5 − 6L
Apr 20at KC7 − 5W
Apr 19at CLE4 − 8L
Apr 18at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 17at CLE6 − 4W
Apr 16at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 15vs ARI5 − 8L