bayesRatings

Astros at Orioles

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final HOU 3 – BAL 5
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU0000100203110
BAL20002010590
Team box
HOU·BAL
11
hits
9
1
home runs
1
2
walks
2
12
strikeouts
8
119
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice MatthewsHOU3-4112
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4112
Adley RutschmanBAL2-4102
Samuel BasalloBAL2-4001
Christian WalkerHOU2-4100
Yainer DiazHOU2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kai-Wei Teng (L)HOU3.05202
Shane Baz (W)BAL5.26116
Ryan Helsley (S)BAL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: BAL 4 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 49%, BAL 51% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.9 – 4.5 BAL
Expected total
9.4
AstrosThe matchupOrioles
+106Our fair odds−106
4.9Expected runs4.5
−0.04Power rating−0.07
5.2Runs / game4.5
6.0Allowed / game5.0
8.8Hits / game8.0
1.28Home runs / game1.21
4.1Walks drawn / game3.9
11−18Season record13−15
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · BAL chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10649%+11446.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10651%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros−0.4our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byBAL wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more40%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUKai-Wei Teng RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 19 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·BAL
Apr 26 vs NYY
last game
Apr 26 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
HOU·BAL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.2
runs / game
4.5
6.0
runs allowed / game
5.0
11−18
season record
13−15
8−8
home record
7−8
3−10
away record
6−7
W1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
8.0
1.28
home runs / game
1.21
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.34
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

HOU · BAL · 34 days
Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 5−5
Aug 24, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at BALHOU 9 − 8
Aug 22, 2025at BALHOU 10 − 7
Aug 21, 2025at BALHOU 7 − 2
Aug 17, 2025at HOUBAL 12 − 0
Aug 16, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 4
Aug 15, 2025at HOUBAL 7 − 0
Aug 25, 2024at BALHOU 6 − 3
Aug 24, 2024at BALBAL 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2024at BALBAL 7 − 5

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 26vs NYY7 − 4W
Apr 25vs NYY3 − 8L
Apr 24vs NYY4 − 12L
Apr 22at CLE2 − 0W
Apr 21at CLE5 − 8L
Apr 20at CLE9 − 2W
Apr 19vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 18vs STL5 − 7L
Apr 17vs STL4 − 9L
Apr 16vs COL2 − 3L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 26vs BOS3 − 5L
Apr 25vs BOS1 − 17L
Apr 24vs BOS10 − 3W
Apr 22at KC8 − 6W
Apr 21at KC5 − 6L
Apr 20at KC7 − 5W
Apr 19at CLE4 − 8L
Apr 18at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 17at CLE6 − 4W
Apr 16at CLE2 − 4L