bayesRatings

Red Sox at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final BOS 1 – TOR 8
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS100000000190
TOR003220018100
Team box
BOS·TOR
9
hits
10
1
home runs
2
2
walks
3
6
strikeouts
3
130
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS2-4111
Ernie ClementTOR1-5112
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR2-3311
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR3-3200
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-4002
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brayan Bello (L)BOS3.26422
Eric LauerTOR4.15111
Braydon Fisher (W)TOR1.21001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +7
BOS +7
123456789
largest lead: TOR 7 · BOS 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.6 – 4.5 TOR
Expected total
9.1
Red SoxThe matchupBlue Jays
+109Our fair odds−109
4.6Expected runs4.5
+0.06Power rating+0.06
4.1Runs / game3.9
4.4Allowed / game4.8
7.7Hits / game8.3
0.67Home runs / game0.79
3.3Walks drawn / game2.8
12−18Season record13−16
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · TOR chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi49.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10948%+10149.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10952%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byTOR wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSBrayan Bello SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted
TOREric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 8.76 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·TOR
Apr 28 at TOR
last game
Apr 28 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
BOS·TOR
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.1
runs / game
3.9
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.8
12−18
season record
13−16
5−8
home record
9−8
7−10
away record
4−8
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.3
0.67
home runs / game
0.79
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.53
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

BOS · TOR · 35 days
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Apr 28at TORTOR 3 − 0
Apr 27at TORBOS 5 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at TORBOS 7 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at TORBOS 4 − 1
Jun 29, 2025at BOSTOR 5 − 3
Jun 28, 2025at BOSBOS 15 − 1
Jun 27, 2025at BOSTOR 9 − 0
May 1, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at TORTOR 7 − 6

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 28at TOR0 − 3L
Apr 27at TOR5 − 0W
Apr 26at BAL5 − 3W
Apr 25at BAL17 − 1W
Apr 24at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 23vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 22vs NYY1 − 4L
Apr 21vs NYY0 − 4L
Apr 20vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 19vs DET2 − 6L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 28vs BOS3 − 0W
Apr 27vs BOS0 − 5L
Apr 26vs CLE4 − 2W
Apr 25vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 24vs CLE6 − 8L
Apr 22at LAA3 − 7L
Apr 21at LAA4 − 2W
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W
Apr 19at ARI10 − 4W
Apr 18at ARI2 − 6L