bayesRatings

Guardians at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 12:37 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final CLE 2 – TOR 4
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000020000280
TOR20000200461
Team box
CLE·TOR
8
hits
6
0
home runs
1
5
walks
1
10
strikeouts
8
117
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jesus SanchezTOR1-3113
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR3-4101
Angel MartinezCLE2-5001
Brayan RocchioCLE1-4001
Austin HedgesCLE1-3100
Steven KwanCLE1-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade Cecconi (L)CLE5.26415
Patrick CorbinTOR4.26224
Braydon Fisher (W)TOR1.11022
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 2 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.6 – 4.2 CLE
Expected total
8.8
GuardiansThe matchupBlue Jays
+108Our fair odds−108
4.2Expected runs4.6
+0.06Power rating+0.05
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game5.0
7.5Hits / game8.8
1.07Home runs / game0.85
3.9Walks drawn / game2.9
15−13Season record11−15
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · TOR chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:37 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10848%+10947.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10852%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more39%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.91 ERA, 9 Kstarted
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·TOR
Apr 25 at TOR
last game
Apr 25 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
CLE·TOR
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
15−13
season record
11−15
8−5
home record
7−7
7−8
away record
4−8
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.8
1.07
home runs / game
0.85
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
6.9
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.43
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

CLE · TOR · 32 days
Cleveland GuardiansToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Apr 25at TORTOR 5 − 3
Apr 24at TORCLE 8 − 6
Jun 26, 2025at CLETOR 6 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 24, 2025at CLETOR 10 − 6
May 4, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 3
May 2, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 3
Jun 23, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 5
Jun 22, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L
Apr 19vs BAL8 − 4W
Apr 18vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 17vs BAL4 − 6L
Apr 16vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 15at STL3 − 5L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 25vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 24vs CLE6 − 8L
Apr 22at LAA3 − 7L
Apr 21at LAA4 − 2W
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W
Apr 19at ARI10 − 4W
Apr 18at ARI2 − 6L
Apr 17at ARI3 − 6L
Apr 16at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 15at MIL1 − 2L