bayesRatings

Guardians at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final CLE 3 – TOR 5
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE001000101391
TOR00010310590
Team box
CLE·TOR
9
hits
9
1
home runs
1
1
walks
3
7
strikeouts
10
153
pitches thrown
143
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-3212
David FryCLE1-3111
Andres GimenezTOR1-4002
Brayan RocchioCLE1-4001
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-1001
Myles StrawTOR2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey Cantillo (L)CLE5.06114
Kevin Gausman (W)TOR6.26203
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.03112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 3 · CLE 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.4 CLE
Expected total
8.9
GuardiansThe matchupBlue Jays
+106Our fair odds−106
4.4Expected runs4.5
+0.07Power rating+0.05
4.2Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game5.1
7.5Hits / game8.8
1.07Home runs / game0.84
4.0Walks drawn / game2.9
15−12Season record10−15
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · TOR chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10648%+12444.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10652%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.2our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 19 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·TOR
Apr 24 at TOR
last game
Apr 24 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
CLE·TOR
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.2
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
15−12
season record
10−15
8−5
home record
6−7
7−7
away record
4−8
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.8
1.07
home runs / game
0.84
4.0
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
6.8
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.9
0.41
errors / game
0.72

Rating Trend

CLE · TOR · 31 days
Cleveland GuardiansToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Apr 24at TORCLE 8 − 6
Jun 26, 2025at CLETOR 6 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 24, 2025at CLETOR 10 − 6
May 4, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 3
May 2, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 3
Jun 23, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 5
Jun 22, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at CLECLE 7 − 1

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L
Apr 19vs BAL8 − 4W
Apr 18vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 17vs BAL4 − 6L
Apr 16vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 15at STL3 − 5L
Apr 14at STL5 − 6L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 24vs CLE6 − 8L
Apr 22at LAA3 − 7L
Apr 21at LAA4 − 2W
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W
Apr 19at ARI10 − 4W
Apr 18at ARI2 − 6L
Apr 17at ARI3 − 6L
Apr 16at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 15at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 14at MIL9 − 7W