bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Angels

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 2:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TOR 3 – LAA 7
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR0000003003121
LAA001110407110
Team box
TOR·LAA
12
hits
11
0
home runs
2
1
walks
5
9
strikeouts
8
146
pitches thrown
154
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-4214
Ernie ClementTOR3-5001
Mike TroutLAA1-3211
Nathan LukesTOR2-5101
Jo AdellLAA1-4101
Logan O'HoppeLAA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eric LauerTOR5.07323
Tommy Nance (L)TOR1.11212
Jose SorianoLAA5.07004
Brent Suter (W)LAA1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +4
TOR +4
123456789
largest lead: LAA 4 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 53%, LAA 47% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
TOR by 1.0
Expected score
TOR 5.3 – 4.3 LAA
Expected total
9.7
Blue JaysThe matchupAngels
−114Our fair odds+114
5.3Expected runs4.3
+0.06Power rating−0.15
4.0Runs / game4.8
4.9Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game7.2
0.83Home runs / game1.36
3.0Walks drawn / game4.6
10−13Season record11−14
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−11453%+12444.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11447%−14859.7%———
SpreadTOR by 1.0
TORToronto Blue Jays−1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.0 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byLAA wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more45%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TOREric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.82 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 0.44 ERA, 28 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·LAA
Apr 21 at LAA
last game
Apr 21 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
TOR·LAA
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.0
runs / game
4.8
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
10−13
season record
11−14
6−6
home record
4−7
4−7
away record
7−7
W3
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
7.2
0.83
home runs / game
1.36
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.6
6.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.9
10.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.74
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

TOR · LAA · 28 days
Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 2−8
Apr 21at LAATOR 4 − 2
Apr 20at LAATOR 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Jul 4, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
May 8, 2025at LAATOR 8 − 5
May 7, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 4
May 6, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 3
Aug 25, 2024at TORTOR 8 − 2
Aug 24, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 1

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Apr 21at LAA4 − 2W
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W
Apr 19at ARI10 − 4W
Apr 18at ARI2 − 6L
Apr 17at ARI3 − 6L
Apr 16at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 15at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 14at MIL9 − 7W
Apr 12vs MIN2 − 8L
Apr 11vs MIN4 − 7L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Apr 21vs TOR2 − 4L
Apr 20vs TOR2 − 5L
Apr 19vs SD1 − 2L
Apr 18vs SD1 − 4L
Apr 17vs SD8 − 0W
Apr 16at NYY11 − 4W
Apr 15at NYY4 − 5L
Apr 14at NYY7 − 1W
Apr 13at NYY10 − 11L
Apr 12at CIN9 − 6W