bayesRatings

Padres at Angels

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final SD 4 – LAA 1
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000000022490
LAA000000010160
Team box
SD·LAA
9
hits
6
0
home runs
0
5
walks
4
10
strikeouts
10
160
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-4002
Ramon LaureanoSD1-4002
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-3001
Miguel AndujarSD2-3000
Mike TroutLAA1-4000
Adam FrazierLAA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
German MarquezSD5.22025
Adrian Morejon (W)SD1.10012
Mason Miller (S)SD1.01012
Yusei KikuchiLAA6.04018
Ryan Zeferjahn (L)LAA1.03220

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · SD 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
SD by 1.1
Expected score
SD 5.1 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
9.2
PadresThe matchupAngels
−116Our fair odds+116
5.1Expected runs4.0
+0.14Power rating−0.11
4.5Runs / game5.4
3.9Allowed / game4.7
7.7Hits / game7.7
0.85Home runs / game1.62
3.5Walks drawn / game4.7
13−7Season record11−10
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.8%46.2%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−11654%−11252.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11646%−10751.8%———
SpreadSD by 1.1
SDSan Diego Padres−1.1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 1.1 expected
San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← SD wins byLAA wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more46%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more36%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDGerman Marquez SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 10 Kstarted
LAAYusei Kikuchi SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 8.56 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·LAA
Apr 17 at LAA
last game
Apr 17 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
SD·LAA
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.5
runs / game
5.4
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.7
13−7
season record
11−10
9−4
home record
4−3
4−3
away record
7−7
L1
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
7.7
0.85
home runs / game
1.62
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.7
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.30
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

SD · LAA · 24 days
San Diego PadresLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Apr 17at LAALAA 8 − 0
May 14, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
May 13, 2025at SDSD 6 − 4
May 12, 2025at SDLAA 9 − 5
Jun 5, 2024at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 4, 2024at LAALAA 4 − 2
Jun 3, 2024at LAALAA 2 − 1
Jul 5, 2023at SDSD 5 − 3
Jul 4, 2023at SDSD 8 − 5
Jul 3, 2023at SDSD 10 − 3

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 17at LAA0 − 8L
Apr 16vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 15vs SEA7 − 6W
Apr 14vs SEA4 − 1W
Apr 12vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W
Apr 7at PIT1 − 7L

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 17vs SD8 − 0W
Apr 16at NYY11 − 4W
Apr 15at NYY4 − 5L
Apr 14at NYY7 − 1W
Apr 13at NYY10 − 11L
Apr 12at CIN9 − 6W
Apr 11at CIN3 − 7L
Apr 10at CIN10 − 2W
Apr 8vs ATL2 − 8L
Apr 7vs ATL2 − 7L