bayesRatings

Mariners at Padres

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final SEA 6 – SD 7
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA0202200006100
SD0000020057100
Team box
SEA·SD
10
hits
10
1
home runs
1
7
walks
2
12
strikeouts
7
152
pitches thrown
186
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luke RaleySEA4-5212
Xander BogaertsSD2-4112
Jackson MerrillSD2-5102
Ramon LaureanoSD2-5101
Brendan DonovanSEA1-3002
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson HancockSEA6.04216
Andres Munoz (L)SEA0.24511
Randy VasquezSD4.05446
Alek Jacob (W)SD2.01013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +6
SEA +6
123456789
largest lead: SD 1 · SEA 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 46%, SD 54% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.2 – 3.8 SEA
Expected total
7.9
MarinersThe matchupPadres
+116Our fair odds−116
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating+0.14
3.9Runs / game4.6
3.4Allowed / game3.6
6.6Hits / game7.7
0.89Home runs / game0.94
4.4Walks drawn / game3.6
8−10Season record11−6
4−6Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · SD chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi51.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+11646%−10751.8%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11654%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more38%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 19 Kstarted
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·SD
Apr 14 at SD
last game
Apr 14 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
SEA·SD
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
3.9
runs / game
4.6
3.4
runs allowed / game
3.6
8−10
season record
11−6
7−4
home record
7−4
1−6
away record
4−2
L1
streak
W6
4−6
last 10
9−1
6.6
hits / game
7.7
0.89
home runs / game
0.94
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.44
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

SEA · SD · 21 days
Seattle MarinersSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 3−7
Apr 14at SDSD 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at SEASD 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 6
May 18, 2025at SDSEA 6 − 1
May 17, 2025at SDSEA 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at SDSEA 5 − 1
Sep 11, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 2
Sep 10, 2024at SEASD 7 − 3
Jul 10, 2024at SDSEA 2 − 0

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 14at SD1 − 4L
Apr 13vs HOU6 − 2W
Apr 12vs HOU6 − 1W
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W
Apr 10vs HOU9 − 6W
Apr 8at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 7at TEX2 − 3L
Apr 6at TEX1 − 2L
Apr 5at LAA7 − 8L
Apr 4at LAA0 − 1L

SD · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Apr 14vs SEA4 − 1W
Apr 12vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W
Apr 7at PIT1 − 7L
Apr 6at PIT5 − 0W
Apr 5at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 4at BOS3 − 2W