bayesRatings

Mariners at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final SEA 1 – SD 4
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA010000000140
SD003000014110
Team box
SEA·SD
4
hits
11
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
7
strikeouts
4
113
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Xander BogaertsSD3-4003
Jackson MerrillSD3-4200
Ramon LaureanoSD2-4100
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-4101
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-4100
Ty FranceSD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan Woo (L)SEA7.08313
Michael King (W)SD6.04125
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 3 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 47%, SD 53% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.2 – 3.8 SEA
Expected total
7.9
MarinersThe matchupPadres
+113Our fair odds−113
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.10Power rating+0.13
4.1Runs / game4.6
3.4Allowed / game3.8
6.8Hits / game7.5
0.94Home runs / game1.00
4.5Walks drawn / game3.8
8−9Season record10−6
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · SD chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+11347%−11653.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11353%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more38%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·SD
Apr 13 vs HOU
last game
Apr 12 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
SEA·SD
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.1
runs / game
4.6
3.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
8−9
season record
10−6
7−4
home record
6−4
1−5
away record
4−2
W4
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
8−2
6.8
hits / game
7.5
0.94
home runs / game
1.00
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.47
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

SEA · SD · 20 days
Seattle MarinersSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 2−8
Aug 27, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at SEASD 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 6
May 18, 2025at SDSEA 6 − 1
May 17, 2025at SDSEA 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at SDSEA 5 − 1
Sep 11, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 2
Sep 10, 2024at SEASD 7 − 3
Jul 10, 2024at SDSEA 2 − 0
Jul 9, 2024at SDSEA 8 − 3

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Apr 13vs HOU6 − 2W
Apr 12vs HOU6 − 1W
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W
Apr 10vs HOU9 − 6W
Apr 8at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 7at TEX2 − 3L
Apr 6at TEX1 − 2L
Apr 5at LAA7 − 8L
Apr 4at LAA0 − 1L
Apr 3at LAA3 − 1W

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Apr 12vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W
Apr 7at PIT1 − 7L
Apr 6at PIT5 − 0W
Apr 5at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 4at BOS3 − 2W
Apr 3at BOS2 − 5L