bayesRatings

Mariners at Padres

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final SEA 2 – SD 5
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000002000271
SD040000105100
Team box
SEA·SD
7
hits
10
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
12
strikeouts
6
135
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD2-4001
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-2102
Cal RaleighSEA2-4001
Miguel AndujarSD2-4100
Ramon LaureanoSD1-4001
Luis CampusanoSD1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Castillo (L)SEA5.17133
Walker Buehler (W)SD5.05217
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +4
SEA +4
123456789
largest lead: SD 4 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 46%, SD 54% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.2 – 3.8 SEA
Expected total
7.9
MarinersThe matchupPadres
+118Our fair odds−118
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating+0.15
4.0Runs / game4.7
3.6Allowed / game3.7
6.8Hits / game7.8
0.89Home runs / game0.94
4.5Walks drawn / game3.5
8−11Season record12−6
4−6Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+11846%−11653.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11854%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more38%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more27%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.92 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·SD
Apr 15 at SD
last game
Apr 15 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
SEA·SD
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
4.0
runs / game
4.7
3.6
runs allowed / game
3.7
8−11
season record
12−6
7−4
home record
8−4
1−7
away record
4−2
L2
streak
W7
4−6
last 10
9−1
6.8
hits / game
7.8
0.89
home runs / game
0.94
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.42
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

SEA · SD · 22 days
Seattle MarinersSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
Apr 15at SDSD 7 − 6
Apr 14at SDSD 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at SEASD 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 6
May 18, 2025at SDSEA 6 − 1
May 17, 2025at SDSEA 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at SDSEA 5 − 1
Sep 11, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 2
Sep 10, 2024at SEASD 7 − 3

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 15at SD6 − 7L
Apr 14at SD1 − 4L
Apr 13vs HOU6 − 2W
Apr 12vs HOU6 − 1W
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W
Apr 10vs HOU9 − 6W
Apr 8at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 7at TEX2 − 3L
Apr 6at TEX1 − 2L
Apr 5at LAA7 − 8L

SD · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Apr 15vs SEA7 − 6W
Apr 14vs SEA4 − 1W
Apr 12vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W
Apr 7at PIT1 − 7L
Apr 6at PIT5 − 0W
Apr 5at BOS8 − 6W