bayesRatings

Padres at Angels

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final SD 0 – LAA 8
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000000000030
LAA030320008130
Team box
SD·LAA
3
hits
13
0
home runs
2
4
walks
3
13
strikeouts
9
172
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh LoweLAA2-4112
Nolan SchanuelLAA3-5101
Yoan MoncadaLAA1-5111
Adam FrazierLAA2-4201
Jo AdellLAA1-5002
Zach NetoLAA2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matt Waldron (L)SD3.28614
Jose Soriano (W)LAA5.22048

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +8
SD +8
123456789
largest lead: LAA 8 · SD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
SD by 1.2
Expected score
SD 5.2 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
9.3
PadresThe matchupAngels
−120Our fair odds+120
5.2Expected runs4.1
+0.16Power rating−0.13
4.7Runs / game5.2
3.6Allowed / game4.9
7.9Hits / game7.5
0.89Home runs / game1.60
3.5Walks drawn / game4.8
13−6Season record10−10
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.6%45.4%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−12055%+10947.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12045%−13156.7%———
SpreadSD by 1.2
SDSan Diego Padres−1.2our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 1.2 expected
San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← SD wins byLAA wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more47%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more36%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMatt Waldron RP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 12.89 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 0.43 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·LAA
Apr 16 vs SEA
last game
Apr 16 at NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
SD·LAA
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.7
runs / game
5.2
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.9
13−6
season record
10−10
9−4
home record
3−3
4−2
away record
7−7
W8
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.5
0.89
home runs / game
1.60
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.8
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.7
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.32
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

SD · LAA · 23 days
San Diego PadresLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
May 14, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
May 13, 2025at SDSD 6 − 4
May 12, 2025at SDLAA 9 − 5
Jun 5, 2024at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 4, 2024at LAALAA 4 − 2
Jun 3, 2024at LAALAA 2 − 1
Jul 5, 2023at SDSD 5 − 3
Jul 4, 2023at SDSD 8 − 5
Jul 3, 2023at SDSD 10 − 3
Sep 8, 2021at SDSD 8 − 5

SD · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Apr 16vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 15vs SEA7 − 6W
Apr 14vs SEA4 − 1W
Apr 12vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W
Apr 7at PIT1 − 7L
Apr 6at PIT5 − 0W

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 16at NYY11 − 4W
Apr 15at NYY4 − 5L
Apr 14at NYY7 − 1W
Apr 13at NYY10 − 11L
Apr 12at CIN9 − 6W
Apr 11at CIN3 − 7L
Apr 10at CIN10 − 2W
Apr 8vs ATL2 − 8L
Apr 7vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 6vs ATL6 − 2W