bayesRatings

Padres at Angels

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final SD 2 – LAA 1
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000100100250
LAA000000100120
Team box
SD·LAA
5
hits
2
0
home runs
0
3
walks
7
11
strikeouts
11
178
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce JohnsonSD2-3001
Xander BogaertsSD1-2101
Jorge SolerLAA1-4000
Oswald PerazaLAA1-2100
Zach NetoLAA0-2001
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael King (W)SD5.01046
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00002
Walbert Urena (L)LAA6.04228

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · SD 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
SD by 1.1
Expected score
SD 5.1 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
9.1
PadresThe matchupAngels
−120Our fair odds+120
5.1Expected runs4.0
+0.15Power rating−0.12
4.5Runs / game5.2
3.7Allowed / game4.6
7.8Hits / game7.6
0.81Home runs / game1.55
3.6Walks drawn / game4.6
14−7Season record11−11
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−12054%−14859.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12046%+12444.7%———
SpreadSD by 1.1
SDSan Diego Padres−1.1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 1.1 expected
San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← SD wins byLAA wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more46%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 14 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·LAA
Apr 18 at LAA
last game
Apr 18 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
SD·LAA
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.5
runs / game
5.2
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
14−7
season record
11−11
9−4
home record
4−4
5−3
away record
7−7
W1
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.6
0.81
home runs / game
1.55
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.6
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.29
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

SD · LAA · 25 days
San Diego PadresLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Apr 18at LAASD 4 − 1
Apr 17at LAALAA 8 − 0
May 14, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
May 13, 2025at SDSD 6 − 4
May 12, 2025at SDLAA 9 − 5
Jun 5, 2024at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 4, 2024at LAALAA 4 − 2
Jun 3, 2024at LAALAA 2 − 1
Jul 5, 2023at SDSD 5 − 3
Jul 4, 2023at SDSD 8 − 5

SD · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Apr 18at LAA4 − 1W
Apr 17at LAA0 − 8L
Apr 16vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 15vs SEA7 − 6W
Apr 14vs SEA4 − 1W
Apr 12vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W
Apr 8at PIT8 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 18vs SD1 − 4L
Apr 17vs SD8 − 0W
Apr 16at NYY11 − 4W
Apr 15at NYY4 − 5L
Apr 14at NYY7 − 1W
Apr 13at NYY10 − 11L
Apr 12at CIN9 − 6W
Apr 11at CIN3 − 7L
Apr 10at CIN10 − 2W
Apr 8vs ATL2 − 8L