bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Diamondbacks

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 3:10 PM CT · Chase Field · Final TOR 10 – ARI 4
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR80110000010140
ARI0100012004100
Team box
TOR·ARI
14
hits
10
1
home runs
1
4
walks
1
7
strikeouts
5
123
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-4213
Nathan LukesTOR3-5103
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR3-5202
Jorge BarrosaARI1-2112
Adrian Del CastilloARI2-3101
James McCannARI1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (W)TOR6.07214
Ryne Nelson (L)ARI0.18811

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +9
TOR +9
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · TOR 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 47%, ARI 53% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 5.1 – 4.9 ARI
Expected total
10.0
Blue JaysThe matchupDiamondbacks
+113Our fair odds−113
5.1Expected runs4.9
+0.04Power rating+0.07
3.6Runs / game4.5
5.2Allowed / game4.4
8.4Hits / game7.9
0.85Home runs / game0.81
3.0Walks drawn / game2.4
7−13Season record13−8
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · ARI chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+11347%−11653.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11353%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.2our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byARI wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more39%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more30%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 20 Kstarted
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·ARI
Apr 18 at ARI
last game
Apr 18 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
TOR·ARI
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
3.6
runs / game
4.5
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
7−13
season record
13−8
6−6
home record
7−2
1−7
away record
6−6
L4
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
8−2
8.4
hits / game
7.9
0.85
home runs / game
0.81
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.4
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
10.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.80
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

TOR · ARI · 25 days
Toronto Blue JaysArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Apr 18at ARIARI 6 − 2
Apr 17at ARIARI 6 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at TORARI 9 − 5
Jun 18, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 1
Jun 17, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 4
Jul 14, 2024at ARITOR 8 − 7
Jul 13, 2024at ARIARI 12 − 1
Jul 12, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 4
Jul 16, 2023at TORTOR 7 − 5
Jul 15, 2023at TORTOR 5 − 2

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Apr 18at ARI2 − 6L
Apr 17at ARI3 − 6L
Apr 16at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 15at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 14at MIL9 − 7W
Apr 12vs MIN2 − 8L
Apr 11vs MIN4 − 7L
Apr 10vs MIN10 − 4W
Apr 8vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 7vs LAD1 − 4L

ARI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Apr 18vs TOR6 − 2W
Apr 17vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 15at BAL8 − 5W
Apr 14at BAL4 − 3W
Apr 13at BAL7 − 9L
Apr 12at PHI4 − 3W
Apr 11at PHI3 − 4L
Apr 10at PHI5 − 4W
Apr 9at NYM7 − 1W
Apr 8at NYM7 − 2W