bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final TOR 3 – ARI 6
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000101010383
ARI000120216100
Team box
TOR·ARI
8
hits
10
1
home runs
1
0
walks
2
7
strikeouts
6
138
pitches thrown
119
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4112
Myles StrawTOR2-3211
Ketel MarteARI2-5200
Corbin CarrollARI1-4101
Tim TawaARI1-3001
Jose FernandezARI1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braydon FisherTOR1.01000
Eric Lauer (L)TOR5.05314
Michael Soroka (W)ARI7.05205
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 3 · TOR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, ARI 52% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 5.2 – 4.9 ARI
Expected total
10.1
Blue JaysThe matchupDiamondbacks
+110Our fair odds−110
5.2Expected runs4.9
+0.06Power rating+0.05
3.8Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game7.8
0.89Home runs / game0.79
3.3Walks drawn / game2.4
7−11Season record11−8
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · ARI chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+11048%+11945.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11052%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byARI wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more40%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more31%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORBraydon Fisher RP · last 1 start: 1.1 IP, 33.75 ERA, 1 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·ARI
Apr 16 at MIL
last game
Apr 15 at BAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
TOR·ARI
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
3.8
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.6
7−11
season record
11−8
6−6
home record
5−2
1−5
away record
6−6
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
7.8
0.89
home runs / game
0.79
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.4
6.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
10.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.67
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

TOR · ARI · 23 days
Toronto Blue JaysArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ARI 3−6
Jun 19, 2025at TORARI 9 − 5
Jun 18, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 1
Jun 17, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 4
Jul 14, 2024at ARITOR 8 − 7
Jul 13, 2024at ARIARI 12 − 1
Jul 12, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 4
Jul 16, 2023at TORTOR 7 − 5
Jul 15, 2023at TORTOR 5 − 2
Jul 14, 2023at TORTOR 7 − 2

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 16at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 15at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 14at MIL9 − 7W
Apr 12vs MIN2 − 8L
Apr 11vs MIN4 − 7L
Apr 10vs MIN10 − 4W
Apr 8vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 7vs LAD1 − 4L
Apr 6vs LAD2 − 14L
Apr 5at CHW0 − 3L

ARI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 15at BAL8 − 5W
Apr 14at BAL4 − 3W
Apr 13at BAL7 − 9L
Apr 12at PHI4 − 3W
Apr 11at PHI3 − 4L
Apr 10at PHI5 − 4W
Apr 9at NYM7 − 1W
Apr 8at NYM7 − 2W
Apr 7at NYM3 − 4L
Apr 5vs ATL6 − 5W