bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TOR 4 – LAA 2
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000001030480
LAA000010001250
Team box
TOR·LAA
8
hits
5
0
home runs
0
3
walks
2
4
strikeouts
6
125
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eloy JimenezTOR1-2002
Lenyn SosaTOR1-1002
Yoan MoncadaLAA1-1001
Oswald PerazaLAA2-3100
Daulton VarshoTOR2-4000
Ernie ClementTOR2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick CorbinTOR5.02123
Mason Fluharty (W)TOR0.20001
Louis Varland (S)TOR0.20000
Jack KochanowiczLAA5.25121
Drew Pomeranz (L)LAA1.03311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · TOR 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 53%, LAA 47% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
TOR by 1.0
Expected score
TOR 5.4 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.8
Blue JaysThe matchupAngels
−112Our fair odds+112
5.4Expected runs4.4
+0.06Power rating−0.14
4.0Runs / game4.9
5.0Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game7.3
0.86Home runs / game1.42
3.0Walks drawn / game4.7
9−13Season record11−13
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · LAA chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−11253%−10751.8%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11247%−11252.7%———
SpreadTOR by 1.0
TORToronto Blue Jays−1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.0 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byLAA wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more45%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 14 Kstarted
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.86 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·LAA
Apr 20 at LAA
last game
Apr 20 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
TOR·LAA
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.0
runs / game
4.9
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
9−13
season record
11−13
6−6
home record
4−6
3−7
away record
7−7
W2
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
7.3
0.86
home runs / game
1.42
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.7
6.9
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
10.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.77
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

TOR · LAA · 27 days
Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 2−8
Apr 20at LAATOR 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Jul 4, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
May 8, 2025at LAATOR 8 − 5
May 7, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 4
May 6, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 3
Aug 25, 2024at TORTOR 8 − 2
Aug 24, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 1
Aug 23, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 4

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W
Apr 19at ARI10 − 4W
Apr 18at ARI2 − 6L
Apr 17at ARI3 − 6L
Apr 16at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 15at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 14at MIL9 − 7W
Apr 12vs MIN2 − 8L
Apr 11vs MIN4 − 7L
Apr 10vs MIN10 − 4W

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 20vs TOR2 − 5L
Apr 19vs SD1 − 2L
Apr 18vs SD1 − 4L
Apr 17vs SD8 − 0W
Apr 16at NYY11 − 4W
Apr 15at NYY4 − 5L
Apr 14at NYY7 − 1W
Apr 13at NYY10 − 11L
Apr 12at CIN9 − 6W
Apr 11at CIN3 − 7L