bayesRatings

Guardians at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final CLE 8 – TOR 6
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE5020010008100
TOR210012000690
Team box
CLE·TOR
10
hits
9
3
home runs
2
4
walks
2
8
strikeouts
5
133
pitches thrown
169
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel MartinezCLE2-4224
Andres GimenezTOR3-4002
Daniel SchneemannCLE2-4111
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-3211
Jesus SanchezTOR1-3111
George ValeraCLE1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin Williams (W)CLE6.07624
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.02000
Max Scherzer (L)TOR2.16730

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
CLE +5
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · CLE 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.6 – 4.2 CLE
Expected total
8.8
GuardiansThe matchupBlue Jays
+108Our fair odds−108
4.2Expected runs4.6
+0.06Power rating+0.05
4.0Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game5.0
7.4Hits / game8.8
1.00Home runs / game0.79
4.0Walks drawn / game2.9
14−12Season record10−14
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · TOR chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10848%−12655.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10852%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more39%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 23 Kstarted
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 10.45 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·TOR
Apr 22 vs HOU
last game
Apr 22 at LAA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
CLE·TOR
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.0
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.0
14−12
season record
10−14
8−5
home record
6−6
6−7
away record
4−8
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.4
hits / game
8.8
1.00
home runs / game
0.79
4.0
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
6.9
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.42
errors / game
0.75

Rating Trend

CLE · TOR · 30 days
Cleveland GuardiansToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Jun 26, 2025at CLETOR 6 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 24, 2025at CLETOR 10 − 6
May 4, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 3
May 2, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 3
Jun 23, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 5
Jun 22, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at CLECLE 7 − 1
Jun 16, 2024at TORTOR 7 − 6

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L
Apr 19vs BAL8 − 4W
Apr 18vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 17vs BAL4 − 6L
Apr 16vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 15at STL3 − 5L
Apr 14at STL5 − 6L
Apr 13at STL9 − 3W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 22at LAA3 − 7L
Apr 21at LAA4 − 2W
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W
Apr 19at ARI10 − 4W
Apr 18at ARI2 − 6L
Apr 17at ARI3 − 6L
Apr 16at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 15at MIL1 − 2L
Apr 14at MIL9 − 7W
Apr 12vs MIN2 − 8L