bayesRatings

Red Sox at Blue Jays

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final BOS 0 – TOR 3
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000000000040
TOR00201000360
Team box
BOS·TOR
4
hits
6
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
9
strikeouts
7
114
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-3101
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-4002
Trevor StoryBOS1-4000
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4000
Masataka YoshidaBOS1-3000
Marcelo MayerBOS1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Payton Tolle (L)BOS4.23344
Trey Yesavage (W)TOR5.14003
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 3 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.7 – 4.5 TOR
Expected total
9.2
Red SoxThe matchupBlue Jays
+107Our fair odds−107
4.7Expected runs4.5
+0.06Power rating+0.05
4.2Runs / game3.9
4.4Allowed / game4.9
7.8Hits / game8.4
0.69Home runs / game0.82
3.4Walks drawn / game2.8
12−17Season record12−16
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · TOR chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10748%−10751.8%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10752%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.2our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byTOR wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·TOR
Apr 27 at TOR
last game
Apr 27 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
BOS·TOR
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.2
runs / game
3.9
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
12−17
season record
12−16
5−8
home record
8−8
7−9
away record
4−8
W3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.4
0.69
home runs / game
0.82
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.55
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

BOS · TOR · 34 days
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Apr 27at TORBOS 5 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at TORBOS 7 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at TORBOS 4 − 1
Jun 29, 2025at BOSTOR 5 − 3
Jun 28, 2025at BOSBOS 15 − 1
Jun 27, 2025at BOSTOR 9 − 0
May 1, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at TORTOR 7 − 6
Apr 29, 2025at TORBOS 10 − 2

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Apr 27at TOR5 − 0W
Apr 26at BAL5 − 3W
Apr 25at BAL17 − 1W
Apr 24at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 23vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 22vs NYY1 − 4L
Apr 21vs NYY0 − 4L
Apr 20vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 19vs DET2 − 6L
Apr 18vs DET1 − 4L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 27vs BOS0 − 5L
Apr 26vs CLE4 − 2W
Apr 25vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 24vs CLE6 − 8L
Apr 22at LAA3 − 7L
Apr 21at LAA4 − 2W
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W
Apr 19at ARI10 − 4W
Apr 18at ARI2 − 6L
Apr 17at ARI3 − 6L