bayesRatings

Red Sox at Blue Jays

MLB · Monday, Apr 27 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final BOS 5 – TOR 0
← MLB / Apr 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000121010590
TOR000000000021
Team box
BOS·TOR
9
hits
2
1
home runs
0
4
walks
1
8
strikeouts
10
115
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carlos NarvaezBOS1-4111
Marcelo MayerBOS2-3101
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4001
Caleb DurbinBOS1-3001
Roman AnthonyBOS1-4001
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ranger Suarez (W)BOS8.010110
Dylan Cease (L)TOR5.27435

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
BOS +5
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · BOS 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Apr 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.7 – 4.6 TOR
Expected total
9.3
Red SoxThe matchupBlue Jays
+110Our fair odds−110
4.7Expected runs4.6
+0.05Power rating+0.06
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.6Allowed / game4.9
7.8Hits / game8.7
0.68Home runs / game0.85
3.4Walks drawn / game2.8
11−17Season record12−15
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · TOR chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+11048%+11446.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11052%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byTOR wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·TOR
Apr 26 at BAL
last game
Apr 26 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
BOS·TOR
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.9
11−17
season record
12−15
5−8
home record
8−7
6−9
away record
4−8
W2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.7
0.68
home runs / game
0.85
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.0
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.57
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

BOS · TOR · 33 days
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Sep 25, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at TORBOS 7 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at TORBOS 4 − 1
Jun 29, 2025at BOSTOR 5 − 3
Jun 28, 2025at BOSBOS 15 − 1
Jun 27, 2025at BOSTOR 9 − 0
May 1, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at TORTOR 7 − 6
Apr 29, 2025at TORBOS 10 − 2
Apr 10, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 26at BAL5 − 3W
Apr 25at BAL17 − 1W
Apr 24at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 23vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 22vs NYY1 − 4L
Apr 21vs NYY0 − 4L
Apr 20vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 19vs DET2 − 6L
Apr 18vs DET1 − 4L
Apr 17vs DET1 − 0W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 26vs CLE4 − 2W
Apr 25vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 24vs CLE6 − 8L
Apr 22at LAA3 − 7L
Apr 21at LAA4 − 2W
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W
Apr 19at ARI10 − 4W
Apr 18at ARI2 − 6L
Apr 17at ARI3 − 6L
Apr 16at MIL1 − 2L