bayesRatings

Tigers at Reds

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final DET 8 – CIN 3
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET2000004208121
CIN010110000371
Team box
DET·CIN
12
hits
7
3
home runs
2
5
walks
2
12
strikeouts
7
141
pitches thrown
175
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gleyber TorresDET3-5312
Spencer TorkelsonDET3-4111
Hao-Yu LeeDET1-2112
Kerry CarpenterDET2-5102
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-4111
JJ BledayCIN1-1111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Keider MonteroDET5.05325
Brant Hurter (W)DET1.00000
Rhett LowderCIN5.06217
Sam Moll (L)CIN0.11101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
DET +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 1 · DET 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 47%, CIN 53% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.1 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.2
TigersThe matchupReds
+112Our fair odds−112
4.0Expected runs4.1
+0.05Power rating+0.07
4.4Runs / game4.3
4.2Allowed / game4.0
8.3Hits / game7.1
1.00Home runs / game1.30
3.7Walks drawn / game4.3
14−14Season record18−9
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CIN chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+11247%−10751.8%———
CINCincinnati Reds−11253%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more36%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CIN
Apr 25 at CIN
last game
Apr 25 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
DET·CIN
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.4
runs / game
4.3
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
14−14
season record
18−9
10−2
home record
8−6
4−12
away record
10−3
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.3
hits / game
7.1
1.00
home runs / game
1.30
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.54
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

DET · CIN · 32 days
Detroit TigersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Apr 25at CINCIN 9 − 2
Apr 24at CINCIN 9 − 8
Jun 15, 2025at DETCIN 8 − 4
Jun 14, 2025at DETCIN 11 − 1
Jun 13, 2025at DETDET 11 − 5
Jul 7, 2024at CINDET 5 − 1
Jul 6, 2024at CINDET 5 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at CINDET 5 − 4
Sep 14, 2023at DETDET 8 − 2
Sep 13, 2023at DETCIN 4 − 3

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 25at CIN2 − 9L
Apr 24at CIN8 − 9L
Apr 23vs MIL5 − 4W
Apr 22vs MIL5 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIL4 − 12L
Apr 20at BOS6 − 8L
Apr 19at BOS6 − 2W
Apr 18at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 17at BOS0 − 1L
Apr 16vs KC10 − 9W

CIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 25vs DET9 − 2W
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W