bayesRatings

Tigers at Reds

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 6:15 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final DET 2 – CIN 9
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET1001000002100
CIN420002019100
Team box
DET·CIN
10
hits
10
2
home runs
4
2
walks
7
6
strikeouts
12
181
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN3-4115
TJ FriedlCIN3-4211
Kevin McGonigleDET3-5111
Elly De La CruzCIN1-3212
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-4111
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Flaherty (L)DET2.05624
Brady Singer (W)CIN5.18203

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +7
DET +7
123456789
largest lead: CIN 7 · DET 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, CIN 52% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.1 – 4.1 DET
Expected total
8.2
TigersThe matchupReds
+108Our fair odds−108
4.1Expected runs4.1
+0.06Power rating+0.06
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game4.1
8.2Hits / game7.0
0.96Home runs / game1.19
3.7Walks drawn / game4.2
14−13Season record17−9
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CIN chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10848%−11252.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10852%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit TigersPKour margin————
CINCincinnati RedsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more35%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CIN
Apr 24 at CIN
last game
Apr 24 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
DET·CIN
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.1
14−13
season record
17−9
10−2
home record
7−6
4−11
away record
10−3
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.2
hits / game
7.0
0.96
home runs / game
1.19
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.56
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

DET · CIN · 31 days
Detroit TigersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Apr 24at CINCIN 9 − 8
Jun 15, 2025at DETCIN 8 − 4
Jun 14, 2025at DETCIN 11 − 1
Jun 13, 2025at DETDET 11 − 5
Jul 7, 2024at CINDET 5 − 1
Jul 6, 2024at CINDET 5 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at CINDET 5 − 4
Sep 14, 2023at DETDET 8 − 2
Sep 13, 2023at DETCIN 4 − 3
Sep 12, 2023at DETCIN 6 − 5

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 24at CIN8 − 9L
Apr 23vs MIL5 − 4W
Apr 22vs MIL5 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIL4 − 12L
Apr 20at BOS6 − 8L
Apr 19at BOS6 − 2W
Apr 18at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 17at BOS0 − 1L
Apr 16vs KC10 − 9W
Apr 15vs KC2 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W