bayesRatings

Rangers at Tigers

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final TEX 5 – DET 4
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX103000010591
DET000310000470
Team box
TEX·DET
9
hits
7
1
home runs
0
4
walks
4
11
strikeouts
6
179
pitches thrown
166
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh JungTEX2-5002
Danny JansenTEX1-4111
Wenceel PerezDET1-4002
Riley GreeneDET2-4101
Hao-Yu LeeDET1-4001
Brandon NimmoTEX2-2200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie GoreTEX3.24333
Tyler Alexander (W)TEX1.01000
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.00001
Jack FlahertyDET3.25434
Burch Smith (L)DET2.03103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
TEX +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · TEX 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 47%, DET 53% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.1 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
7.9
RangersThe matchupTigers
+111Our fair odds−111
3.8Expected runs4.1
+0.03Power rating+0.05
3.9Runs / game4.4
3.6Allowed / game4.2
7.8Hits / game8.3
0.94Home runs / game1.03
3.6Walks drawn / game3.9
15−16Season record16−16
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · DET chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11147%−10751.8%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11153%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.3our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more37%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more27%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 17 Kstarted
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 5.56 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·DET
Apr 29 vs NYY
last game
Apr 30 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
TEX·DET
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
3.9
runs / game
4.4
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.2
15−16
season record
16−16
7−8
home record
10−2
8−8
away record
6−14
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.3
0.94
home runs / game
1.03
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.45
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

TEX · DET · 37 days
Texas RangersDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Jul 20, 2025at TEXDET 2 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 1
Jul 18, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
May 11, 2025at DETTEX 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at DETTEX 10 − 3
May 9, 2025at DETDET 2 − 1
Jun 5, 2024at TEXTEX 9 − 1
Jun 4, 2024at TEXDET 3 − 1
Jun 3, 2024at TEXDET 2 − 1
Apr 18, 2024at DETTEX 9 − 7

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 29vs NYY3 − 0W
Apr 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Apr 27vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 26vs ATH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs ATH4 − 3W
Apr 24vs ATH1 − 8L
Apr 23vs PIT6 − 1W
Apr 22vs PIT4 − 8L
Apr 21vs PIT5 − 1W
Apr 19at SEA2 − 5L

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 30at ATL5 − 2W
Apr 29at ATL3 − 4L
Apr 28at ATL2 − 5L
Apr 26at CIN8 − 3W
Apr 25at CIN2 − 9L
Apr 24at CIN8 − 9L
Apr 23vs MIL5 − 4W
Apr 22vs MIL5 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIL4 − 12L
Apr 20at BOS6 − 8L