bayesRatings

Pirates at Rangers

MLB · Thursday, Apr 23 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final PIT 1 – TEX 6
← MLB / Apr 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000010000150
TEX00240000690
Team box
PIT·TEX
5
hits
9
1
home runs
2
2
walks
5
13
strikeouts
7
137
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corey SeagerTEX2-4113
Evan CarterTEX2-4112
Oneil CruzPIT1-4111
Nick GonzalesPIT2-3000
Joc PedersonTEX1-3101
Brandon NimmoTEX2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bubba Chandler (L)PIT4.07634
Jacob deGrom (W)TEX5.251110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +6
PIT +6
123456789
largest lead: TEX 6 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 47%, TEX 53% · Updated Apr 23

Expected margin
TEX by 0.7
Expected score
TEX 4.1 – 3.4 PIT
Expected total
7.5
PiratesThe matchupRangers
+114Our fair odds−114
3.4Expected runs4.1
+0.00Power rating+0.05
5.1Runs / game4.2
4.0Allowed / game3.8
8.7Hits / game8.0
1.12Home runs / game1.04
4.0Walks drawn / game3.6
14−10Season record12−12
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · TEX chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11447%+12943.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11453%−15460.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.7
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.7our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.5
Over7.5our total————
Under7.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.7 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 19%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 12%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more41%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more30%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.5 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.526%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·TEX
Apr 22 at TEX
last game
Apr 22 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
PIT·TEX
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
5.1
runs / game
4.2
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.8
14−10
season record
12−12
8−5
home record
4−4
6−5
away record
8−8
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.0
1.12
home runs / game
1.04
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.58
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

PIT · TEX · 29 days
Pittsburgh PiratesTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 7−3
Apr 22at TEXPIT 8 − 4
Apr 21at TEXTEX 5 − 1
Jun 22, 2025at PITPIT 8 − 3
Jun 21, 2025at PITTEX 3 − 2
Jun 20, 2025at PITTEX 6 − 2
Aug 21, 2024at TEXTEX 1 − 0
Aug 20, 2024at TEXPIT 4 − 0
Aug 19, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 3
May 24, 2023at PITTEX 3 − 2
May 23, 2023at PITTEX 6 − 1

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 22at TEX8 − 4W
Apr 21at TEX1 − 5L
Apr 19vs TB6 − 3W
Apr 18vs TB7 − 8L
Apr 17vs TB5 − 1W
Apr 16vs WSH7 − 8L
Apr 15vs WSH2 − 0W
Apr 14vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 13vs WSH16 − 5W
Apr 12at CHC6 − 7L

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 22vs PIT4 − 8L
Apr 21vs PIT5 − 1W
Apr 19at SEA2 − 5L
Apr 18at SEA3 − 7L
Apr 17at SEA5 − 0W
Apr 16at ATH9 − 6W
Apr 15at ATH5 − 6L
Apr 14at ATH1 − 2L
Apr 13at ATH8 − 1W
Apr 12at LAD5 − 2W