bayesRatings

Rangers at Mariners

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final TEX 5 – SEA 0
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX1010001025150
SEA000000000060
Team box
TEX·SEA
15
hits
6
1
home runs
0
2
walks
5
12
strikeouts
7
160
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX3-5101
Josh JungTEX3-5001
Wyatt LangfordTEX3-5101
Brandon NimmoTEX1-4111
Josh NaylorSEA2-2000
Corey SeagerTEX2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob deGromTEX4.04023
Gavin Collyer (W)TEX1.11012
Logan Gilbert (L)SEA5.17217

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +5
TEX +5
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · TEX 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 47%, SEA 53% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.2 – 3.9 TEX
Expected total
8.0
RangersThe matchupMariners
+112Our fair odds−112
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating+0.07
4.3Runs / game3.9
3.7Allowed / game3.7
7.7Hits / game6.8
1.16Home runs / game0.85
3.6Walks drawn / game4.4
10−9Season record8−12
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · SEA chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11247%+10947.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11253%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 22 Kstarted
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·SEA
Apr 16 at ATH
last game
Apr 16 at SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
TEX·SEA
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.3
runs / game
3.9
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
10−9
season record
8−12
3−3
home record
7−4
7−6
away record
1−8
W1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
6.8
1.16
home runs / game
0.85
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.4
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.26
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TEX · SEA · 23 days
Texas RangersSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
Apr 8at TEXTEX 3 − 0
Apr 7at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Apr 6at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at SEATEX 6 − 4
Aug 1, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Jun 29, 2025at TEXSEA 6 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at TEXSEA 7 − 6

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 16at ATH9 − 6W
Apr 15at ATH5 − 6L
Apr 14at ATH1 − 2L
Apr 13at ATH8 − 1W
Apr 12at LAD5 − 2W
Apr 11at LAD3 − 6L
Apr 10at LAD7 − 8L
Apr 8vs SEA3 − 0W
Apr 7vs SEA3 − 2W
Apr 6vs SEA2 − 1W

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 16at SD2 − 5L
Apr 15at SD6 − 7L
Apr 14at SD1 − 4L
Apr 13vs HOU6 − 2W
Apr 12vs HOU6 − 1W
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W
Apr 10vs HOU9 − 6W
Apr 8at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 7at TEX2 − 3L
Apr 6at TEX1 − 2L