bayesRatings

Rangers at Athletics

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 2:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final TEX 9 – ATH 6
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX0010112049100
ATH0000300306131
Team box
TEX·ATH
10
hits
13
1
home runs
0
8
walks
4
7
strikeouts
3
169
pitches thrown
172
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh JungTEX3-5212
Nick KurtzATH2-4003
Jacob WilsonATH2-5102
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-4202
Carlos CortesATH2-4001
Shea LangeliersATH2-2200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack LeiterTEX5.27333
Cal Quantrill (W)TEX1.01000
Jacob LopezATH5.03245
Justin Sterner (L)ATH1.04311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 1 · TEX 3lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 50%, ATH 50% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
TEX by 0.5
Expected score
TEX 4.5 – 4.0 ATH
Expected total
8.6
RangersThe matchupAthletics
+102Our fair odds−102
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.05Power rating−0.03
4.1Runs / game4.0
3.6Allowed / game4.4
7.6Hits / game7.6
1.17Home runs / game0.94
3.4Walks drawn / game3.6
9−9Season record10−8
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · ATH chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10250%−11252.7%———
ATHAthletics−10250%−10751.8%———
SpreadTEX by 0.5
TEXTexas Rangers−0.5our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.5 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byATH wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more41%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more30%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 7.42 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·ATH
Apr 15 at ATH
last game
Apr 15 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
TEX·ATH
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.0
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
9−9
season record
10−8
3−3
home record
4−2
6−6
away record
6−6
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
7.6
1.17
home runs / game
0.94
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
10.2
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.28
errors / game
0.17

Rating Trend

TEX · ATH · 22 days
Texas RangersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 3−7
Apr 15at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 14at ATHATH 2 − 1
Apr 13at ATHTEX 8 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Aug 30, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at ATHTEX 5 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Jul 22, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 2
Jul 21, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 2
May 1, 2025at TEXATH 3 − 0

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 15at ATH5 − 6L
Apr 14at ATH1 − 2L
Apr 13at ATH8 − 1W
Apr 12at LAD5 − 2W
Apr 11at LAD3 − 6L
Apr 10at LAD7 − 8L
Apr 8vs SEA3 − 0W
Apr 7vs SEA3 − 2W
Apr 6vs SEA2 − 1W
Apr 5vs CIN1 − 2L

ATH · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 15vs TEX6 − 5W
Apr 14vs TEX2 − 1W
Apr 13vs TEX1 − 8L
Apr 12at NYM1 − 0W
Apr 11at NYM11 − 6W
Apr 10at NYM4 − 0W
Apr 9at NYY1 − 0W
Apr 8at NYY3 − 2W
Apr 7at NYY3 − 5L
Apr 5vs HOU12 − 10W