bayesRatings

Athletics at Mets

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 3:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ATH 11 – NYM 6
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH02500004011150
NYM1000221006101
Team box
ATH·NYM
15
hits
10
3
home runs
3
4
walks
4
11
strikeouts
10
151
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler SoderstromATH3-5225
Bo BichetteNYM2-3113
Carlos CortesATH1-4113
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-4111
Jorge PolancoNYM1-5111
Jeff McNeilATH3-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Lopez (W)ATH5.07535
Kodai Senga (L)NYM2.18723

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +6
ATH +6
123456789
largest lead: NYM 1 · ATH 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, NYM 55% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
NYM by 0.6
Expected score
NYM 5.0 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
9.3
AthleticsThe matchupMets
+123Our fair odds−123
4.4Expected runs5.0
−0.06Power rating+0.05
3.9Runs / game4.0
4.5Allowed / game3.8
7.8Hits / game8.3
0.77Home runs / game0.71
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
6−7Season record7−7
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · NYM chance
Our model fair44.9%55.1%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12345%+13442.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−12355%−16862.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.6
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.6 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more41%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 13.06 ERA, 8 Kstarted
NYMKodai Senga RP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·NYM
Apr 10 at NYM
last game
Apr 10 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
ATH·NYM
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
3.9
runs / game
4.0
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
6−7
season record
7−7
2−1
home record
3−4
4−6
away record
4−3
W3
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.3
0.77
home runs / game
0.71
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
10.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.23
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

ATH · NYM · 17 days
AthleticsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
Apr 10at NYMATH 4 − 0
Apr 13, 2025at ATHNYM 8 − 0
Apr 12, 2025at ATHATH 3 − 1
Apr 11, 2025at ATHNYM 7 − 6
Aug 15, 2024at NYMATH 7 − 6
Aug 14, 2024at NYMNYM 9 − 1
Aug 13, 2024at NYMATH 9 − 4
Apr 16, 2023at ATHNYM 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2023at ATHNYM 3 − 2
Apr 14, 2023at ATHNYM 17 − 6

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 10at NYM4 − 0W
Apr 9at NYY1 − 0W
Apr 8at NYY3 − 2W
Apr 7at NYY3 − 5L
Apr 5vs HOU12 − 10W
Apr 4vs HOU0 − 11L
Apr 3vs HOU11 − 4W
Apr 1at ATL1 − 5L
Mar 31at ATL5 − 2W
Mar 30at ATL0 − 4L

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L
Apr 7vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 5at SF5 − 2W
Apr 4at SF9 − 0W
Apr 3at SF10 − 3W
Apr 2at SF2 − 7L
Apr 1at STL1 − 2L
Mar 31at STL0 − 3L