bayesRatings

Athletics at Mets

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ATH 4 – NYM 0
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH001000003490
NYM000000000061
Team box
ATH·NYM
9
hits
6
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
4
strikeouts
10
138
pitches thrown
122
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeff McNeilATH2-4001
Jacob WilsonATH3-4100
Denzel ClarkeATH1-4002
Shea LangeliersATH1-4001
Carlos CortesATH1-4100
Max MuncyATH1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
J.T. GinnATH4.01014
Jack Perkins (W)ATH2.13003
Clay Holmes (L)NYM5.15133

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · ATH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 44%, NYM 56% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
NYM by 0.7
Expected score
NYM 5.0 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
9.4
AthleticsThe matchupMets
+126Our fair odds−126
4.4Expected runs5.0
−0.08Power rating+0.06
3.9Runs / game4.3
4.9Allowed / game3.8
7.7Hits / game8.5
0.83Home runs / game0.77
3.2Walks drawn / game3.8
5−7Season record7−6
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · NYM chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12644%+12444.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−12656%−14859.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.7
ATHAthletics+0.7our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.7 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more42%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 13 Kstarted
NYMClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·NYM
Apr 9 at NYY
last game
Apr 9 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
ATH·NYM
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.9
runs / game
4.3
4.9
runs allowed / game
3.8
5−7
season record
7−6
2−1
home record
3−3
3−6
away record
4−3
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
8.5
0.83
home runs / game
0.77
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.8
10.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.25
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

ATH · NYM · 16 days
AthleticsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 7−3
Apr 13, 2025at ATHNYM 8 − 0
Apr 12, 2025at ATHATH 3 − 1
Apr 11, 2025at ATHNYM 7 − 6
Aug 15, 2024at NYMATH 7 − 6
Aug 14, 2024at NYMNYM 9 − 1
Aug 13, 2024at NYMATH 9 − 4
Apr 16, 2023at ATHNYM 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2023at ATHNYM 3 − 2
Apr 14, 2023at ATHNYM 17 − 6
Sep 25, 2022at ATHNYM 13 − 4

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 9at NYY1 − 0W
Apr 8at NYY3 − 2W
Apr 7at NYY3 − 5L
Apr 5vs HOU12 − 10W
Apr 4vs HOU0 − 11L
Apr 3vs HOU11 − 4W
Apr 1at ATL1 − 5L
Mar 31at ATL5 − 2W
Mar 30at ATL0 − 4L
Mar 29at TOR2 − 5L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L
Apr 7vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 5at SF5 − 2W
Apr 4at SF9 − 0W
Apr 3at SF10 − 3W
Apr 2at SF2 − 7L
Apr 1at STL1 − 2L
Mar 31at STL0 − 3L
Mar 30at STL4 − 2W