bayesRatings

Athletics at Mets

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 12:40 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ATH 1 – NYM 0
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH001000000140
NYM000000000040
Team box
ATH·NYM
4
hits
4
1
home runs
0
3
walks
1
10
strikeouts
5
115
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick KurtzATH1-3111
Francisco LindorNYM2-4000
Jeff McNeilATH1-4000
Carlos CortesATH1-3000
Shea LangeliersATH1-4000
Luis TorrensNYM1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Civale (W)ATH5.24003
Joel Kuhnel (S)ATH1.00000
Freddy Peralta (L)NYM6.04136

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · ATH 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 46%, NYM 54% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 5.0 – 4.5 ATH
Expected total
9.5
AthleticsThe matchupMets
+119Our fair odds−119
4.5Expected runs5.0
−0.04Power rating+0.04
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.6Allowed / game4.3
8.3Hits / game8.4
0.93Home runs / game0.87
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
7−7Season record7−8
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · NYM chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+11946%+13442.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−11954%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics+0.4our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more40%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more30%
Athletics wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 13 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·NYM
Apr 11 at NYM
last game
Apr 11 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
ATH·NYM
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
7−7
season record
7−8
2−1
home record
3−5
5−6
away record
4−3
W4
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.4
0.93
home runs / game
0.87
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
10.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.21
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

ATH · NYM · 18 days
AthleticsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Apr 11at NYMATH 11 − 6
Apr 10at NYMATH 4 − 0
Apr 13, 2025at ATHNYM 8 − 0
Apr 12, 2025at ATHATH 3 − 1
Apr 11, 2025at ATHNYM 7 − 6
Aug 15, 2024at NYMATH 7 − 6
Aug 14, 2024at NYMNYM 9 − 1
Aug 13, 2024at NYMATH 9 − 4
Apr 16, 2023at ATHNYM 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2023at ATHNYM 3 − 2

ATH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Apr 11at NYM11 − 6W
Apr 10at NYM4 − 0W
Apr 9at NYY1 − 0W
Apr 8at NYY3 − 2W
Apr 7at NYY3 − 5L
Apr 5vs HOU12 − 10W
Apr 4vs HOU0 − 11L
Apr 3vs HOU11 − 4W
Apr 1at ATL1 − 5L
Mar 31at ATL5 − 2W

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L
Apr 7vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 5at SF5 − 2W
Apr 4at SF9 − 0W
Apr 3at SF10 − 3W
Apr 2at SF2 − 7L
Apr 1at STL1 − 2L