bayesRatings

Rangers at Dodgers

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final TEX 7 – LAD 8
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX003010003790
LAD0101120218150
Team box
TEX·LAD
9
hits
15
3
home runs
4
3
walks
4
14
strikeouts
7
163
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD4-5533
Andy PagesLAD3-3214
Corey SeagerTEX1-5113
Evan CarterTEX1-3112
Wyatt LangfordTEX1-3111
Miguel RojasLAD2-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kumar RockerTEX5.05325
Jacob Latz (L)TEX0.21102
Tyler GlasnowLAD6.05417
Edwin Diaz (W)LAD1.04312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 3 · TEX 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 41%, LAD 59% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
LAD by 0.9
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.5
RangersThe matchupDodgers
+144Our fair odds−144
3.8Expected runs4.7
+0.05Power rating+0.33
3.7Runs / game6.2
3.2Allowed / game3.4
7.8Hits / game9.8
0.92Home runs / game1.75
2.7Walks drawn / game3.8
7−5Season record9−3
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · LAD chance
Our model fair41.0%59.0%
Kalshi35.6%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+14441%+18135.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14459%−22869.5%———
SpreadLAD by 0.9
TEXTexas Rangers+0.9our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.9 expected
Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more43%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more32%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LADTyler Glasnow SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·LAD
Apr 8 vs SEA
last game
Apr 8 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
TEX·LAD
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
3.7
runs / game
6.2
3.2
runs allowed / game
3.4
7−5
season record
9−3
3−3
home record
4−2
4−2
away record
5−1
W3
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
7.8
hits / game
9.8
0.92
home runs / game
1.75
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.42
errors / game
0.25

Rating Trend

TEX · LAD · 16 days
Texas RangersLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Apr 20, 2025at TEXLAD 1 − 0
Apr 19, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2025at TEXLAD 3 − 0
Jun 13, 2024at LADTEX 3 − 1
Jun 12, 2024at LADTEX 3 − 2
Jun 11, 2024at LADLAD 15 − 2
Jul 23, 2023at TEXTEX 8 − 4
Jul 22, 2023at TEXLAD 16 − 3
Jul 21, 2023at TEXLAD 11 − 5
Jun 13, 2021at LADLAD 5 − 3

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 8vs SEA3 − 0W
Apr 7vs SEA3 − 2W
Apr 6vs SEA2 − 1W
Apr 5vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 4vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 3vs CIN3 − 5L
Apr 1at BAL3 − 8L
Mar 31at BAL8 − 5W
Mar 30at BAL5 − 2W
Mar 29at PHI8 − 3W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W