bayesRatings

Rangers at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final TEX 1 – ATH 2
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX100000000140
ATH00200000240
Team box
TEX·ATH
4
hits
4
0
home runs
0
4
walks
8
8
strikeouts
11
150
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jacob WilsonATH1-3002
Jake BurgerTEX1-4001
Austin WynnsATH1-3000
Denzel ClarkeATH1-3100
Nick KurtzATH1-3000
Brandon NimmoTEX1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX4.23265
Jeffrey Springs (W)ATH6.13125
Mark Leiter Jr. (S)ATH1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 1 · TEX 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 50%, ATH 50% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
TEX by 0.6
Expected score
TEX 4.6 – 4.0 ATH
Expected total
8.6
RangersThe matchupAthletics
−102Our fair odds+102
4.6Expected runs4.0
+0.07Power rating−0.05
4.2Runs / game4.0
3.5Allowed / game4.6
8.0Hits / game7.8
1.19Home runs / game0.94
3.2Walks drawn / game3.1
9−7Season record8−8
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · ATH chance
Our model fair50.4%49.5%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−10250%−12655.7%———
ATHAthletics+10250%+10548.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.6
TEXTexas Rangers−0.6our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.6 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byATH wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more41%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 25 Kstarted
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·ATH
Apr 13 at ATH
last game
Apr 13 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
TEX·ATH
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.2
runs / game
4.0
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
9−7
season record
8−8
3−3
home record
2−2
6−4
away record
6−6
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
7.8
1.19
home runs / game
0.94
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
10.1
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.31
errors / game
0.19

Rating Trend

TEX · ATH · 20 days
Texas RangersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 2−8
Apr 13at ATHTEX 8 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Aug 30, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at ATHTEX 5 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Jul 22, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 2
Jul 21, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 2
May 1, 2025at TEXATH 3 − 0
Apr 30, 2025at TEXATH 7 − 1
Apr 29, 2025at TEXTEX 15 − 2

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 13at ATH8 − 1W
Apr 12at LAD5 − 2W
Apr 11at LAD3 − 6L
Apr 10at LAD7 − 8L
Apr 8vs SEA3 − 0W
Apr 7vs SEA3 − 2W
Apr 6vs SEA2 − 1W
Apr 5vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 4vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 3vs CIN3 − 5L

ATH · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 13vs TEX1 − 8L
Apr 12at NYM1 − 0W
Apr 11at NYM11 − 6W
Apr 10at NYM4 − 0W
Apr 9at NYY1 − 0W
Apr 8at NYY3 − 2W
Apr 7at NYY3 − 5L
Apr 5vs HOU12 − 10W
Apr 4vs HOU0 − 11L
Apr 3vs HOU11 − 4W