bayesRatings

Rangers at Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 8:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final TEX 3 – LAD 6
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX100002000340
LAD40100001691
Team box
TEX·LAD
4
hits
9
2
home runs
2
2
walks
6
11
strikeouts
8
166
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon NimmoTEX3-4223
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4213
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-4111
Will SmithLAD2-2200
Andy PagesLAD1-3001
Freddie FreemanLAD1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Leiter (L)TEX3.25544
Emmet Sheehan (W)LAD6.04316
Alex Vesia (S)LAD0.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
TEX +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 4 · TEX 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 41%, LAD 59% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
LAD by 0.9
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.6
RangersThe matchupDodgers
+146Our fair odds−146
3.8Expected runs4.8
+0.05Power rating+0.33
3.9Runs / game6.4
3.6Allowed / game3.7
7.9Hits / game10.2
1.08Home runs / game1.92
2.7Walks drawn / game3.8
7−6Season record10−3
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.7%59.3%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+14641%+15239.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14659%−18364.6%———
SpreadLAD by 0.9
TEXTexas Rangers+0.9our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.9 expected
Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more43%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more32%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 27 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·LAD
Apr 10 at LAD
last game
Apr 10 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
TEX·LAD
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
3.9
runs / game
6.4
3.6
runs allowed / game
3.7
7−6
season record
10−3
3−3
home record
5−2
4−3
away record
5−1
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.9
hits / game
10.2
1.08
home runs / game
1.92
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.38
errors / game
0.23

Rating Trend

TEX · LAD · 17 days
Texas RangersLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Apr 10at LADLAD 8 − 7
Apr 20, 2025at TEXLAD 1 − 0
Apr 19, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2025at TEXLAD 3 − 0
Jun 13, 2024at LADTEX 3 − 1
Jun 12, 2024at LADTEX 3 − 2
Jun 11, 2024at LADLAD 15 − 2
Jul 23, 2023at TEXTEX 8 − 4
Jul 22, 2023at TEXLAD 16 − 3
Jul 21, 2023at TEXLAD 11 − 5

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 10at LAD7 − 8L
Apr 8vs SEA3 − 0W
Apr 7vs SEA3 − 2W
Apr 6vs SEA2 − 1W
Apr 5vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 4vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 3vs CIN3 − 5L
Apr 1at BAL3 − 8L
Mar 31at BAL8 − 5W
Mar 30at BAL5 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L