bayesRatings

Rangers at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final TEX 5 – LAD 2
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX0020010205100
LAD100000100261
Team box
TEX·LAD
10
hits
6
1
home runs
1
10
walks
6
11
strikeouts
12
148
pitches thrown
179
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon NimmoTEX2-5002
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-3111
Evan CarterTEX1-3111
Josh SmithTEX2-5001
Kyle TuckerLAD1-5001
Josh JungTEX2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob deGrom (W)TEX6.04139
Jakob Junis (S)TEX1.00012
Roki Sasaki (L)LAD4.05256

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · TEX 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 40%, LAD 60% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
LAD by 0.9
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.9 TEX
Expected total
8.7
RangersThe matchupDodgers
+149Our fair odds−149
3.9Expected runs4.8
+0.04Power rating+0.35
3.9Runs / game6.4
3.8Allowed / game3.6
7.6Hits / game10.1
1.14Home runs / game1.93
2.6Walks drawn / game4.0
7−7Season record11−3
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+14940%+10548.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14960%−12655.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.9
TEXTexas Rangers+0.9our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.9 expected
Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more43%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more32%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 21 Kstarted
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·LAD
Apr 11 at LAD
last game
Apr 11 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
TEX·LAD
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
3.9
runs / game
6.4
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.6
7−7
season record
11−3
3−3
home record
6−2
4−4
away record
5−1
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
10.1
1.14
home runs / game
1.93
2.6
walks drawn / game
4.0
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.36
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

TEX · LAD · 18 days
Texas RangersLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Apr 11at LADLAD 6 − 3
Apr 10at LADLAD 8 − 7
Apr 20, 2025at TEXLAD 1 − 0
Apr 19, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2025at TEXLAD 3 − 0
Jun 13, 2024at LADTEX 3 − 1
Jun 12, 2024at LADTEX 3 − 2
Jun 11, 2024at LADLAD 15 − 2
Jul 23, 2023at TEXTEX 8 − 4
Jul 22, 2023at TEXLAD 16 − 3

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 11at LAD3 − 6L
Apr 10at LAD7 − 8L
Apr 8vs SEA3 − 0W
Apr 7vs SEA3 − 2W
Apr 6vs SEA2 − 1W
Apr 5vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 4vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 3vs CIN3 − 5L
Apr 1at BAL3 − 8L
Mar 31at BAL8 − 5W

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W