bayesRatings

Rangers at Athletics

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final TEX 8 – ATH 1
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX3010000408110
ATH000000010150
Team box
TEX·ATH
11
hits
5
2
home runs
1
5
walks
2
12
strikeouts
8
103
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX2-4224
Lawrence ButlerATH1-4111
Joc PedersonTEX3-5100
Josh JungTEX1-4002
Josh SmithTEX1-4102
Shea LangeliersATH2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan Eovaldi (W)TEX7.03027
Luis Severino (L)ATH6.06437

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +8
TEX +8
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · TEX 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 50%, ATH 50% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
TEX by 0.5
Expected score
TEX 4.6 – 4.1 ATH
Expected total
8.7
RangersThe matchupAthletics
+101Our fair odds−101
4.6Expected runs4.1
+0.05Power rating−0.03
3.9Runs / game4.2
3.7Allowed / game4.3
7.8Hits / game8.0
1.13Home runs / game0.93
3.1Walks drawn / game3.2
8−7Season record8−7
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · ATH chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10150%−12655.7%———
ATHAthletics−10150%+10548.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.5
TEXTexas Rangers−0.5our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.5 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byATH wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more41%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more30%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.98 ERA, 19 Kstarted
ATHLuis Severino SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·ATH
Apr 12 at LAD
last game
Apr 12 at NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
TEX·ATH
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.9
runs / game
4.2
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.3
8−7
season record
8−7
3−3
home record
2−1
5−4
away record
6−6
W1
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.8
hits / game
8.0
1.13
home runs / game
0.93
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
10.3
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.33
errors / game
0.20

Rating Trend

TEX · ATH · 19 days
Texas RangersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 3−7
Aug 31, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Aug 30, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at ATHTEX 5 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Jul 22, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 2
Jul 21, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 2
May 1, 2025at TEXATH 3 − 0
Apr 30, 2025at TEXATH 7 − 1
Apr 29, 2025at TEXTEX 15 − 2
Apr 28, 2025at TEXATH 2 − 1

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 12at LAD5 − 2W
Apr 11at LAD3 − 6L
Apr 10at LAD7 − 8L
Apr 8vs SEA3 − 0W
Apr 7vs SEA3 − 2W
Apr 6vs SEA2 − 1W
Apr 5vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 4vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 3vs CIN3 − 5L
Apr 1at BAL3 − 8L

ATH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Apr 12at NYM1 − 0W
Apr 11at NYM11 − 6W
Apr 10at NYM4 − 0W
Apr 9at NYY1 − 0W
Apr 8at NYY3 − 2W
Apr 7at NYY3 − 5L
Apr 5vs HOU12 − 10W
Apr 4vs HOU0 − 11L
Apr 3vs HOU11 − 4W
Apr 1at ATL1 − 5L