bayesRatings

Rangers at Mariners

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 6:15 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final TEX 3 – SEA 7
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX0000010023112
SEA100201037110
Team box
TEX·SEA
11
hits
11
1
home runs
1
8
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
160
pitches thrown
181
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic CanzoneSEA3-4102
Josh JungTEX2-4111
Cole YoungSEA2-3102
Ezequiel DuranTEX3-5001
Luke RaleySEA1-3311
Wyatt LangfordTEX3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan Eovaldi (L)TEX5.08213
George Kirby (W)SEA5.27125
Andres Munoz (S)SEA0.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +6
TEX +6
123456789
largest lead: SEA 6 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, SEA 52% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.0 – 3.9 TEX
Expected total
7.9
RangersThe matchupMariners
+108Our fair odds−108
3.9Expected runs4.0
+0.07Power rating+0.06
4.3Runs / game3.7
3.5Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game6.8
1.15Home runs / game0.81
3.5Walks drawn / game4.4
11−9Season record8−13
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · SEA chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10848%+11446.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−10852%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.2our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more36%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more26%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 19 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 21.2 IP, 3.74 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·SEA
Apr 17 at SEA
last game
Apr 17 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
TEX·SEA
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.3
runs / game
3.7
3.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
11−9
season record
8−13
3−3
home record
7−5
8−6
away record
1−8
W2
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
6.8
1.15
home runs / game
0.81
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.4
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.25
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

TEX · SEA · 24 days
Texas RangersSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 4−6
Apr 17at SEATEX 5 − 0
Apr 8at TEXTEX 3 − 0
Apr 7at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Apr 6at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at SEATEX 6 − 4
Aug 1, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Jun 29, 2025at TEXSEA 6 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 2

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 17at SEA5 − 0W
Apr 16at ATH9 − 6W
Apr 15at ATH5 − 6L
Apr 14at ATH1 − 2L
Apr 13at ATH8 − 1W
Apr 12at LAD5 − 2W
Apr 11at LAD3 − 6L
Apr 10at LAD7 − 8L
Apr 8vs SEA3 − 0W
Apr 7vs SEA3 − 2W

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Apr 17vs TEX0 − 5L
Apr 16at SD2 − 5L
Apr 15at SD6 − 7L
Apr 14at SD1 − 4L
Apr 13vs HOU6 − 2W
Apr 12vs HOU6 − 1W
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W
Apr 10vs HOU9 − 6W
Apr 8at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 7at TEX2 − 3L