bayesRatings

Rangers at Mariners

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 3:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final TEX 2 – SEA 5
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000000200250
SEA12002000580
Team box
TEX·SEA
5
hits
8
0
home runs
3
1
walks
4
11
strikeouts
7
145
pitches thrown
120
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-4112
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-3112
Rob RefsnyderSEA1-4111
Brandon NimmoTEX2-4000
Evan CarterTEX1-4001
Connor JoeSEA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX5.07515
Bryan Woo (W)SEA7.04216
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +5
TEX +5
123456789
largest lead: SEA 5 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, SEA 52% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.1 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
7.9
RangersThe matchupMariners
+110Our fair odds−110
3.8Expected runs4.1
+0.07Power rating+0.07
4.3Runs / game3.9
3.7Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game7.0
1.14Home runs / game0.82
3.8Walks drawn / game4.4
11−10Season record9−13
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · SEA chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11048%+11446.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11052%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more37%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 23 Kstarted
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·SEA
Apr 18 at SEA
last game
Apr 18 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
10th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
TEX·SEA
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.3
runs / game
3.9
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
11−10
season record
9−13
3−3
home record
8−5
8−7
away record
1−8
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.0
1.14
home runs / game
0.82
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.4
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.33
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

TEX · SEA · 25 days
Texas RangersSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
Apr 18at SEASEA 7 − 3
Apr 17at SEATEX 5 − 0
Apr 8at TEXTEX 3 − 0
Apr 7at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Apr 6at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at SEATEX 6 − 4
Aug 1, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Jun 29, 2025at TEXSEA 6 − 4

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 18at SEA3 − 7L
Apr 17at SEA5 − 0W
Apr 16at ATH9 − 6W
Apr 15at ATH5 − 6L
Apr 14at ATH1 − 2L
Apr 13at ATH8 − 1W
Apr 12at LAD5 − 2W
Apr 11at LAD3 − 6L
Apr 10at LAD7 − 8L
Apr 8vs SEA3 − 0W

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 18vs TEX7 − 3W
Apr 17vs TEX0 − 5L
Apr 16at SD2 − 5L
Apr 15at SD6 − 7L
Apr 14at SD1 − 4L
Apr 13vs HOU6 − 2W
Apr 12vs HOU6 − 1W
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W
Apr 10vs HOU9 − 6W
Apr 8at TEX0 − 3L