bayesRatings

Pirates at Rangers

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final PIT 1 – TEX 5
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT100000000160
TEX02003000582
Team box
PIT·TEX
6
hits
8
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
9
strikeouts
10
161
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT1-4001
Jake MangumPIT2-4000
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4000
Corey SeagerTEX1-4101
Josh JungTEX1-3101
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carmen Mlodzinski (L)PIT4.16526
Kumar Rocker (W)TEX6.04115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +4
PIT +4
123456789
largest lead: TEX 4 · PIT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 47%, TEX 53% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
TEX by 0.7
Expected score
TEX 4.1 – 3.4 PIT
Expected total
7.5
PiratesThe matchupRangers
+114Our fair odds−114
3.4Expected runs4.1
+0.00Power rating+0.05
5.1Runs / game4.2
4.0Allowed / game3.7
8.8Hits / game8.1
1.18Home runs / game1.09
4.3Walks drawn / game3.6
13−9Season record11−11
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · TEX chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11447%−10751.8%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11453%−11252.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.7
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.7our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.5
Over7.5our total————
Under7.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.7 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 19%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 12%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more41%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more30%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.5 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.526%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITCarmen Mlodzinski RP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·TEX
Apr 19 vs TB
last game
Apr 19 at SEA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
PIT·TEX
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
5.1
runs / game
4.2
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
13−9
season record
11−11
8−5
home record
3−3
5−4
away record
8−8
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
8.1
1.18
home runs / game
1.09
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.64
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

PIT · TEX · 27 days
Pittsburgh PiratesTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TEX 6−3
Jun 22, 2025at PITPIT 8 − 3
Jun 21, 2025at PITTEX 3 − 2
Jun 20, 2025at PITTEX 6 − 2
Aug 21, 2024at TEXTEX 1 − 0
Aug 20, 2024at TEXPIT 4 − 0
Aug 19, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 3
May 24, 2023at PITTEX 3 − 2
May 23, 2023at PITTEX 6 − 1
May 22, 2023at PITPIT 6 − 4

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 19vs TB6 − 3W
Apr 18vs TB7 − 8L
Apr 17vs TB5 − 1W
Apr 16vs WSH7 − 8L
Apr 15vs WSH2 − 0W
Apr 14vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 13vs WSH16 − 5W
Apr 12at CHC6 − 7L
Apr 11at CHC4 − 3W
Apr 10at CHC2 − 0W

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 19at SEA2 − 5L
Apr 18at SEA3 − 7L
Apr 17at SEA5 − 0W
Apr 16at ATH9 − 6W
Apr 15at ATH5 − 6L
Apr 14at ATH1 − 2L
Apr 13at ATH8 − 1W
Apr 12at LAD5 − 2W
Apr 11at LAD3 − 6L
Apr 10at LAD7 − 8L