bayesRatings

Athletics at Rangers

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final ATH 2 – TEX 1
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH2000000002101
TEX000001000160
Team box
ATH·TEX
10
hits
6
0
home runs
0
4
walks
5
5
strikeouts
10
138
pitches thrown
132
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carlos CortesATH3-4002
Shea LangeliersATH2-5000
Josh JungTEX2-4100
Jeff McNeilATH1-4000
Tyler SoderstromATH1-3100
Jacob WilsonATH1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
J.T. GinnATH3.13012
Justin Sterner (W)ATH1.01002
Jack Perkins (S)ATH2.01003
Kumar Rocker (L)TEX6.06223

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · ATH 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 46%, TEX 54% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
TEX by 0.8
Expected score
TEX 4.5 – 3.6 ATH
Expected total
8.1
AthleticsThe matchupRangers
+120Our fair odds−120
3.6Expected runs4.5
−0.05Power rating+0.05
4.3Runs / game4.1
4.7Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.15Home runs / game1.04
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
14−13Season record14−13
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · TEX chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12046%−10751.8%———
TEXTexas Rangers−12054%−11252.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.8
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 18%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more43%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·TEX
Apr 25 at TEX
last game
Apr 25 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
ATH·TEX
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.3
runs / game
4.1
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.8
14−13
season record
14−13
5−5
home record
6−5
9−8
away record
8−8
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.15
home runs / game
1.04
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.19
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

ATH · TEX · 32 days
AthleticsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 7−3
Apr 25at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 24at TEXATH 8 − 1
Apr 16at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Apr 15at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 14at ATHATH 2 − 1
Apr 13at ATHTEX 8 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Aug 30, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at ATHTEX 5 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 25at TEX3 − 4L
Apr 24at TEX8 − 1W
Apr 22at SEA4 − 5L
Apr 21at SEA5 − 2W
Apr 20at SEA6 − 4W
Apr 19vs CHW4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CHW7 − 6W
Apr 17vs CHW2 − 9L
Apr 16vs TEX6 − 9L
Apr 15vs TEX6 − 5W

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 25vs ATH4 − 3W
Apr 24vs ATH1 − 8L
Apr 23vs PIT6 − 1W
Apr 22vs PIT4 − 8L
Apr 21vs PIT5 − 1W
Apr 19at SEA2 − 5L
Apr 18at SEA3 − 7L
Apr 17at SEA5 − 0W
Apr 16at ATH9 − 6W
Apr 15at ATH5 − 6L