bayesRatings

White Sox at Athletics

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final CHW 9 – ATH 2
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW1020204009150
ATH000100010241
Team box
CHW·ATH
15
hits
4
1
home runs
0
4
walks
4
11
strikeouts
5
128
pitches thrown
194
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW3-5214
Andrew BenintendiCHW3-6201
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-4002
Luisangel AcunaCHW2-4201
Edgar QueroCHW2-5001
Nick KurtzATH1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis Martin (W)CHW7.03124
Aaron Civale (L)ATH4.211514

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +8
CHW +8
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · CHW 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 40%, ATH 60% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
ATH by 0.7
Expected score
ATH 4.7 – 4.0 CHW
Expected total
8.7
White SoxThe matchupAthletics
+151Our fair odds−151
4.0Expected runs4.7
−0.36Power rating−0.04
3.2Runs / game4.1
5.3Allowed / game4.6
6.2Hits / game7.8
0.84Home runs / game0.89
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
6−13Season record10−9
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · ATH chance
Our model fair39.8%60.2%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+15140%+12943.7%———
ATHAthletics−15160%−15460.7%———
SpreadATH by 0.7
CHWChicago White Sox+0.7our margin————
ATHAthletics−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Athletics by 0.7 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 18%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 8%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 6 runs: 4%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more41%
Athletics wins by 3 or more31%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·ATH
Apr 16 vs TB
last game
Apr 16 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
CHW·ATH
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.2
runs / game
4.1
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
6−13
season record
10−9
3−6
home record
4−3
3−7
away record
6−6
L3
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
7−3
6.2
hits / game
7.8
0.84
home runs / game
0.89
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.68
errors / game
0.21

Rating Trend

CHW · ATH · 23 days
Chicago White SoxAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 7−3
Apr 27, 2025at ATHATH 3 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at ATHCHW 10 − 3
Apr 25, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at CHWATH 8 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at CHWATH 3 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at CHWATH 12 − 3
Sep 15, 2024at CHWCHW 4 − 3
Sep 14, 2024at CHWCHW 7 − 6
Sep 13, 2024at CHWATH 2 − 0
Aug 7, 2024at ATHATH 3 − 2

CHW · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Apr 16vs TB3 − 5L
Apr 15vs TB3 − 8L
Apr 14vs TB5 − 8L
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W
Apr 11at KC0 − 2L
Apr 10at KC0 − 2L
Apr 9at KC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs BAL3 − 5L
Apr 7vs BAL2 − 4L
Apr 6vs BAL1 − 2L

ATH · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 16vs TEX6 − 9L
Apr 15vs TEX6 − 5W
Apr 14vs TEX2 − 1W
Apr 13vs TEX1 − 8L
Apr 12at NYM1 − 0W
Apr 11at NYM11 − 6W
Apr 10at NYM4 − 0W
Apr 9at NYY1 − 0W
Apr 8at NYY3 − 2W
Apr 7at NYY3 − 5L