bayesRatings

White Sox at Athletics

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final CHW 7 – ATH 4
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW1300300007101
ATH010000300450
Team box
CHW·ATH
10
hits
5
4
home runs
1
3
walks
3
11
strikeouts
11
168
pitches thrown
151
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW2-3212
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-5112
Darell HernaizATH1-2211
Derek HillCHW1-4111
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-3111
Zack GelofATH1-3102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah Schultz (W)CHW5.01116
Seranthony Dominguez (S)CHW1.00011
Jeffrey Springs (L)ATH5.09717

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +6
CHW +6
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · CHW 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 41%, ATH 59% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
ATH by 0.5
Expected score
ATH 4.7 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.9
White SoxThe matchupAthletics
+145Our fair odds−145
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.34Power rating−0.06
3.6Runs / game4.1
5.2Allowed / game4.9
6.7Hits / game7.8
0.95Home runs / game0.90
3.9Walks drawn / game3.9
7−14Season record11−10
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · ATH chance
Our model fair40.8%59.2%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+14541%+13442.7%———
ATHAthletics−14559%−16161.7%———
SpreadATH by 0.5
CHWChicago White Sox+0.5our margin————
ATHAthletics−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Athletics by 0.5 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 18%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 8%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more40%
Athletics wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 1 start: 4.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 4 Kstarted
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 0.93 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·ATH
Apr 18 at ATH
last game
Apr 18 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
CHW·ATH
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.6
runs / game
4.1
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.9
7−14
season record
11−10
3−6
home record
5−4
4−8
away record
6−6
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
7−3
6.7
hits / game
7.8
0.95
home runs / game
0.90
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.62
errors / game
0.24

Rating Trend

CHW · ATH · 25 days
Chicago White SoxAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 6−4
Apr 18at ATHATH 7 − 6
Apr 17at ATHCHW 9 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at ATHATH 3 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at ATHCHW 10 − 3
Apr 25, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at CHWATH 8 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at CHWATH 3 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at CHWATH 12 − 3
Sep 15, 2024at CHWCHW 4 − 3
Sep 14, 2024at CHWCHW 7 − 6

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 18at ATH6 − 7L
Apr 17at ATH9 − 2W
Apr 16vs TB3 − 5L
Apr 15vs TB3 − 8L
Apr 14vs TB5 − 8L
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W
Apr 11at KC0 − 2L
Apr 10at KC0 − 2L
Apr 9at KC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs BAL3 − 5L

ATH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 18vs CHW7 − 6W
Apr 17vs CHW2 − 9L
Apr 16vs TEX6 − 9L
Apr 15vs TEX6 − 5W
Apr 14vs TEX2 − 1W
Apr 13vs TEX1 − 8L
Apr 12at NYM1 − 0W
Apr 11at NYM11 − 6W
Apr 10at NYM4 − 0W
Apr 9at NYY1 − 0W