bayesRatings

White Sox at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final CHW 6 – ATH 7
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
CHW05000010000680
ATH011011200017100
Team box
CHW·ATH
8
hits
10
3
home runs
2
8
walks
10
7
strikeouts
6
177
pitches thrown
187
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick KurtzATH2-3112
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-6113
Jacob WilsonATH2-6211
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-2111
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-4111
Shea LangeliersATH2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Erick FeddeCHW4.22343
Lucas Sims (L)CHW0.20000
Luis SeverinoATH5.15543
Jack Perkins (W)ATH2.11023

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +5
CHW +5
1234567891011
largest lead: ATH 1 · CHW 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 41%, ATH 59% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
ATH by 0.5
Expected score
ATH 4.7 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.8
White SoxThe matchupAthletics
+142Our fair odds−142
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.33Power rating−0.06
3.5Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.8
6.7Hits / game7.7
0.85Home runs / game0.85
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
7−13Season record10−10
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · ATH chance
Our model fair41.3%58.7%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+14241%+13442.7%———
ATHAthletics−14259%−16161.7%———
SpreadATH by 0.5
CHWChicago White Sox+0.5our margin————
ATHAthletics−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Athletics by 0.5 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 18%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 8%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more40%
Athletics wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATHLuis Severino SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·ATH
Apr 17 at ATH
last game
Apr 17 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
CHW·ATH
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.5
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
7−13
season record
10−10
3−6
home record
4−4
4−7
away record
6−6
W1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
7−3
6.7
hits / game
7.7
0.85
home runs / game
0.85
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.65
errors / game
0.25

Rating Trend

CHW · ATH · 24 days
Chicago White SoxAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 6−4
Apr 17at ATHCHW 9 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at ATHATH 3 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at ATHCHW 10 − 3
Apr 25, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at CHWATH 8 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at CHWATH 3 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at CHWATH 12 − 3
Sep 15, 2024at CHWCHW 4 − 3
Sep 14, 2024at CHWCHW 7 − 6
Sep 13, 2024at CHWATH 2 − 0

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 17at ATH9 − 2W
Apr 16vs TB3 − 5L
Apr 15vs TB3 − 8L
Apr 14vs TB5 − 8L
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W
Apr 11at KC0 − 2L
Apr 10at KC0 − 2L
Apr 9at KC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs BAL3 − 5L
Apr 7vs BAL2 − 4L

ATH · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Apr 17vs CHW2 − 9L
Apr 16vs TEX6 − 9L
Apr 15vs TEX6 − 5W
Apr 14vs TEX2 − 1W
Apr 13vs TEX1 − 8L
Apr 12at NYM1 − 0W
Apr 11at NYM11 − 6W
Apr 10at NYM4 − 0W
Apr 9at NYY1 − 0W
Apr 8at NYY3 − 2W