bayesRatings

Athletics at Mariners

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final ATH 5 – SEA 2
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH1001011015130
SEA001010000280
Team box
ATH·SEA
13
hits
8
2
home runs
1
4
walks
3
10
strikeouts
5
146
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeff McNeilATH2-5111
Shea LangeliersATH2-4111
Cal RaleighSEA2-3111
Jacob WilsonATH2-5002
Tyler SoderstromATH2-4101
Max MuncyATH2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Lopez (W)ATH5.17221
Jack Perkins (S)ATH2.00002
Luis CastilloSEA5.05226
Eduard Bazardo (L)SEA1.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · ATH 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, SEA 55% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
SEA by 0.8
Expected score
SEA 4.8 – 3.9 ATH
Expected total
8.7
AthleticsThe matchupMariners
+124Our fair odds−124
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating+0.07
4.2Runs / game3.9
5.0Allowed / game3.8
7.9Hits / game7.1
1.00Home runs / game0.96
3.8Walks drawn / game4.2
12−11Season record10−14
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · SEA chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12445%+12943.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−12455%−16161.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.8
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more43%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 16 Kstarted
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 8.03 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·SEA
Apr 20 at SEA
last game
Apr 20 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
ATH·SEA
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.2
runs / game
3.9
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.8
12−11
season record
10−14
5−5
home record
9−6
7−6
away record
1−8
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.1
1.00
home runs / game
0.96
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.22
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

ATH · SEA · 27 days
AthleticsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
Apr 20at SEAATH 6 − 4
Aug 24, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 4
Aug 23, 2025at SEAATH 2 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Jul 30, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at ATHSEA 3 − 1
May 7, 2025at ATHSEA 6 − 5
May 6, 2025at ATHSEA 5 − 3
May 5, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 6

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 20at SEA6 − 4W
Apr 19vs CHW4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CHW7 − 6W
Apr 17vs CHW2 − 9L
Apr 16vs TEX6 − 9L
Apr 15vs TEX6 − 5W
Apr 14vs TEX2 − 1W
Apr 13vs TEX1 − 8L
Apr 12at NYM1 − 0W
Apr 11at NYM11 − 6W

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 20vs ATH4 − 6L
Apr 19vs TEX5 − 2W
Apr 18vs TEX7 − 3W
Apr 17vs TEX0 − 5L
Apr 16at SD2 − 5L
Apr 15at SD6 − 7L
Apr 14at SD1 − 4L
Apr 13vs HOU6 − 2W
Apr 12vs HOU6 − 1W
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W