bayesRatings

Athletics at Mariners

MLB · Monday, Apr 20 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final ATH 6 – SEA 4
← MLB / Apr 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH0001020306130
SEA2100000014100
Team box
ATH·SEA
13
hits
10
3
home runs
2
2
walks
1
4
strikeouts
9
146
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carlos CortesATH4-5111
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-4111
Lawrence ButlerATH2-4002
Josh NaylorSEA3-4001
Shea LangeliersATH1-5111
Nick KurtzATH1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
J.T. GinnATH5.16316
Hogan Harris (W)ATH1.20002
Joel Kuhnel (S)ATH1.02100
Emerson HancockSEA5.07303
Casey Legumina (L)SEA1.03310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 3 · ATH 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 44%, SEA 56% · Updated Apr 20

Expected margin
SEA by 0.9
Expected score
SEA 4.8 – 3.9 ATH
Expected total
8.7
AthleticsThe matchupMariners
+127Our fair odds−127
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.07Power rating+0.08
4.1Runs / game3.9
5.0Allowed / game3.7
7.6Hits / game7.0
0.91Home runs / game0.91
3.9Walks drawn / game4.3
11−11Season record10−13
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · SEA chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12744%+11945.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−12756%−14258.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.9
ATHAthletics+0.9our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.9 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 12%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more44%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more33%
Athletics wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.23 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·SEA
Apr 19 vs CHW
last game
Apr 19 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
ATH·SEA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.1
runs / game
3.9
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
11−11
season record
10−13
5−5
home record
9−5
6−6
away record
1−8
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
7.0
0.91
home runs / game
0.91
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.23
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

ATH · SEA · 26 days
AthleticsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Aug 24, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 4
Aug 23, 2025at SEAATH 2 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Jul 30, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at ATHSEA 3 − 1
May 7, 2025at ATHSEA 6 − 5
May 6, 2025at ATHSEA 5 − 3
May 5, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 6
Mar 30, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 19vs CHW4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CHW7 − 6W
Apr 17vs CHW2 − 9L
Apr 16vs TEX6 − 9L
Apr 15vs TEX6 − 5W
Apr 14vs TEX2 − 1W
Apr 13vs TEX1 − 8L
Apr 12at NYM1 − 0W
Apr 11at NYM11 − 6W
Apr 10at NYM4 − 0W

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 19vs TEX5 − 2W
Apr 18vs TEX7 − 3W
Apr 17vs TEX0 − 5L
Apr 16at SD2 − 5L
Apr 15at SD6 − 7L
Apr 14at SD1 − 4L
Apr 13vs HOU6 − 2W
Apr 12vs HOU6 − 1W
Apr 11vs HOU8 − 7W
Apr 10vs HOU9 − 6W