bayesRatings

Athletics at Rangers

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 6:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final ATH 3 – TEX 4
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH012000000370
TEX00200200451
Team box
ATH·TEX
7
hits
5
0
home runs
1
3
walks
2
10
strikeouts
5
115
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh JungTEX1-4112
Jacob WilsonATH2-3101
Corey SeagerTEX2-4101
Shea LangeliersATH2-5100
Darell HernaizATH1-2001
Colby ThomasATH1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jeffrey Springs (L)ATH6.05424
MacKenzie GoreTEX5.06337
Cole Winn (W)TEX1.00001
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 1 · ATH 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 46%, TEX 54% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
TEX by 0.8
Expected score
TEX 4.5 – 3.7 ATH
Expected total
8.2
AthleticsThe matchupRangers
+118Our fair odds−118
3.7Expected runs4.5
−0.04Power rating+0.05
4.4Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game3.8
8.2Hits / game8.1
1.19Home runs / game1.04
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
14−12Season record13−13
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · TEX chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+11846%+10548.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11854%−12655.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.8
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 18%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more43%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 18 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·TEX
Apr 24 at TEX
last game
Apr 24 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
ATH·TEX
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.4
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.8
14−12
season record
13−13
5−5
home record
5−5
9−7
away record
8−8
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.1
1.19
home runs / game
1.04
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.19
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

ATH · TEX · 31 days
AthleticsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 7−3
Apr 24at TEXATH 8 − 1
Apr 16at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Apr 15at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 14at ATHATH 2 − 1
Apr 13at ATHTEX 8 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Aug 30, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at ATHTEX 5 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Jul 22, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 2

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 24at TEX8 − 1W
Apr 22at SEA4 − 5L
Apr 21at SEA5 − 2W
Apr 20at SEA6 − 4W
Apr 19vs CHW4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CHW7 − 6W
Apr 17vs CHW2 − 9L
Apr 16vs TEX6 − 9L
Apr 15vs TEX6 − 5W
Apr 14vs TEX2 − 1W

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 24vs ATH1 − 8L
Apr 23vs PIT6 − 1W
Apr 22vs PIT4 − 8L
Apr 21vs PIT5 − 1W
Apr 19at SEA2 − 5L
Apr 18at SEA3 − 7L
Apr 17at SEA5 − 0W
Apr 16at ATH9 − 6W
Apr 15at ATH5 − 6L
Apr 14at ATH1 − 2L