bayesRatings

Athletics at Rangers

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final ATH 8 – TEX 1
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH300030002890
TEX000100000180
Team box
ATH·TEX
9
hits
8
5
home runs
0
1
walks
1
5
strikeouts
7
135
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carlos CortesATH2-4224
Zack GelofATH2-4212
Nick KurtzATH2-4211
Tyler SoderstromATH1-4111
Jeff McNeilATH2-4100
Corey SeagerTEX2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Severino (W)ATH6.26115
Nathan Eovaldi (L)TEX6.06613

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +7
ATH +7
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · ATH 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, TEX 55% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
TEX by 0.9
Expected score
TEX 4.5 – 3.6 ATH
Expected total
8.2
AthleticsThe matchupRangers
+123Our fair odds−123
3.6Expected runs4.5
−0.06Power rating+0.06
4.2Runs / game4.3
4.8Allowed / game3.7
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.04Home runs / game1.08
3.8Walks drawn / game3.7
13−12Season record13−12
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · TEX chance
Our model fair44.9%55.1%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12345%+10947.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−12355%−13156.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.9
ATHAthletics+0.9our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.9 expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 18%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more44%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more33%
Athletics wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHLuis Severino SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·TEX
Apr 22 at SEA
last game
Apr 23 vs PIT
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
ATH·TEX
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.2
runs / game
4.3
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.7
13−12
season record
13−12
5−5
home record
5−4
8−7
away record
8−8
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.08
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.20
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

ATH · TEX · 30 days
AthleticsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 8−2
Apr 16at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Apr 15at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 14at ATHATH 2 − 1
Apr 13at ATHTEX 8 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Aug 30, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at ATHTEX 5 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Jul 22, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 2
Jul 21, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 2

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 22at SEA4 − 5L
Apr 21at SEA5 − 2W
Apr 20at SEA6 − 4W
Apr 19vs CHW4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CHW7 − 6W
Apr 17vs CHW2 − 9L
Apr 16vs TEX6 − 9L
Apr 15vs TEX6 − 5W
Apr 14vs TEX2 − 1W
Apr 13vs TEX1 − 8L

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 23vs PIT6 − 1W
Apr 22vs PIT4 − 8L
Apr 21vs PIT5 − 1W
Apr 19at SEA2 − 5L
Apr 18at SEA3 − 7L
Apr 17at SEA5 − 0W
Apr 16at ATH9 − 6W
Apr 15at ATH5 − 6L
Apr 14at ATH1 − 2L
Apr 13at ATH8 − 1W