bayesRatings

Yankees at Rangers

MLB · Monday, Apr 27 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final NYY 4 – TEX 2
← MLB / Apr 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY003100000491
TEX000000101270
Team box
NYY·TEX
9
hits
7
3
home runs
1
3
walks
4
5
strikeouts
8
147
pitches thrown
149
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Aaron JudgeNYY3-3111
Ben RiceNYY1-4112
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4111
Joc PedersonTEX1-2111
Alejandro OsunaTEX1-1001
Ryan McMahonNYY1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Fried (W)NYY6.04025
David Bednar (S)NYY1.02001
Jack Leiter (L)TEX6.08414

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · NYY 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 53%, TEX 47% · Updated Apr 27

Expected margin
NYY by 0.5
Expected score
NYY 4.3 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.2
YankeesThe matchupRangers
−115Our fair odds+115
4.3Expected runs3.8
+0.26Power rating+0.04
5.2Runs / game4.0
3.5Allowed / game3.8
7.6Hits / game7.9
1.54Home runs / game1.00
4.8Walks drawn / game3.6
18−10Season record14−14
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TEX chance
Our model fair53.5%46.5%
Kalshi62.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11553%−16862.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers+11547%+13442.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.5
NYYNew York Yankees−0.5our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.5 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTEX wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more40%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 21.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 18 Kstarted
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.91 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TEX
Apr 26 at HOU
last game
Apr 26 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
NYY·TEX
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.2
runs / game
4.0
3.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
18−10
season record
14−14
8−5
home record
6−6
10−5
away record
8−8
L1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
7.9
1.54
home runs / game
1.00
4.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.50
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

NYY · TEX · 33 days
New York YankeesTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Aug 6, 2025at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
Aug 4, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 5
May 22, 2025at NYYNYY 1 − 0
May 21, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
May 20, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 2
Sep 4, 2024at TEXTEX 10 − 6
Sep 3, 2024at TEXTEX 7 − 4
Sep 2, 2024at TEXNYY 8 − 4
Aug 11, 2024at NYYNYY 8 − 7

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 26at HOU4 − 7L
Apr 25at HOU8 − 3W
Apr 24at HOU12 − 4W
Apr 23at BOS4 − 2W
Apr 22at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 21at BOS4 − 0W
Apr 19vs KC7 − 0W
Apr 18vs KC13 − 4W
Apr 17vs KC4 − 2W
Apr 16vs LAA4 − 11L

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 26vs ATH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs ATH4 − 3W
Apr 24vs ATH1 − 8L
Apr 23vs PIT6 − 1W
Apr 22vs PIT4 − 8L
Apr 21vs PIT5 − 1W
Apr 19at SEA2 − 5L
Apr 18at SEA3 − 7L
Apr 17at SEA5 − 0W
Apr 16at ATH9 − 6W