bayesRatings

Tigers at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final DET 2 – ATL 5
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000002261
ATL00200012590
Team box
DET·ATL
6
hits
9
1
home runs
1
5
walks
2
8
strikeouts
9
117
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3112
Wenceel PerezDET1-2112
Mike YastrzemskiATL2-3101
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-4101
Matt OlsonATL1-2101
Dillon DinglerDET2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey Mize (L)DET2.13213
Martin Perez (W)ATL5.02045

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +5
DET +5
123456789
largest lead: ATL 5 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 46%, ATL 54% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 4.2 DET
Expected total
8.8
TigersThe matchupBraves
+116Our fair odds−116
4.2Expected runs4.6
+0.06Power rating+0.13
4.6Runs / game5.7
4.2Allowed / game3.5
8.4Hits / game9.5
1.07Home runs / game1.38
3.7Walks drawn / game3.3
15−14Season record20−9
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ATL chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+11646%+10548.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11654%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more39%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more29%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 0.98 ERA, 19 Kstarted
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ATL
Apr 26 at CIN
last game
Apr 26 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
DET·ATL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.6
runs / game
5.7
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.5
15−14
season record
20−9
10−2
home record
10−5
5−12
away record
10−4
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.4
hits / game
9.5
1.07
home runs / game
1.38
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.55
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

DET · ATL · 34 days
Detroit TigersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 8−1
Sep 21, 2025at DETATL 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at DETATL 6 − 5
Sep 19, 2025at DETATL 10 − 1
Jun 19, 2024at ATLATL 7 − 0
Jun 18, 2024at ATLATL 2 − 1
Jun 17, 2024at ATLATL 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2023at DETATL 6 − 5
Jun 14, 2023at DETATL 10 − 7
Jun 12, 2023at DETDET 6 − 5

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 26at CIN8 − 3W
Apr 25at CIN2 − 9L
Apr 24at CIN8 − 9L
Apr 23vs MIL5 − 4W
Apr 22vs MIL5 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIL4 − 12L
Apr 20at BOS6 − 8L
Apr 19at BOS6 − 2W
Apr 18at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 17at BOS0 − 1L

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Apr 26vs PHI6 − 2W
Apr 25vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 24vs PHI5 − 3W
Apr 23at WSH7 − 2W
Apr 22at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 21at WSH4 − 11L
Apr 20at WSH9 − 4W
Apr 19at PHI4 − 2W
Apr 18at PHI3 − 1W
Apr 17at PHI9 − 0W