bayesRatings

Braves at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final ATL 8 – WSH 6
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL131300000881
WSH4000020006111
Team box
ATL·WSH
8
hits
11
4
home runs
3
3
walks
3
1
strikeouts
12
166
pitches thrown
131
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL2-4223
Daylen LileWSH2-5113
Matt OlsonATL1-4113
Drake BaldwinATL2-3111
James WoodWSH2-3211
Joey WiemerWSH1-1111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Didier FuentesATL3.07417
Dylan Lee (W)ATL1.00000
Robert Suarez (S)ATL1.01000
Zack Littell (L)WSH6.07621

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
ATL +4
123456789
largest lead: WSH 3 · ATL 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 56%, WSH 44% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
ATL by 1.9
Expected score
ATL 6.5 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
11.0
BravesThe matchupNationals
−126Our fair odds+126
6.5Expected runs4.5
+0.11Power rating−0.21
5.6Runs / game5.7
3.3Allowed / game6.1
9.4Hits / game8.9
1.33Home runs / game1.12
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
16−8Season record11−13
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−12656%−16161.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+12644%+13442.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.9
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.9our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.9 expected
Atlanta Braves by 18 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 17 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 16 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byWSH wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more52%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more43%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLDidier Fuentes RP · last 3 starts: 8.0 IP, 18.00 ERA, 9 Kstarted
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·WSH
Apr 21 at WSH
last game
Apr 21 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
ATL·WSH
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
5.6
runs / game
5.7
3.3
runs allowed / game
6.1
16−8
season record
11−13
8−4
home record
3−8
8−4
away record
8−5
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
9.4
hits / game
8.9
1.33
home runs / game
1.12
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.42
errors / game
0.96

Rating Trend

ATL · WSH · 28 days
Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Apr 21at WSHWSH 11 − 4
Apr 20at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at ATLWSH 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at ATLATL 3 − 2
Sep 22, 2025at ATLATL 11 − 5
Sep 17, 2025at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at WSHATL 5 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at WSHATL 6 − 3
Sep 15, 2025at WSHATL 11 − 3
May 22, 2025at WSHWSH 8 − 7

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 21at WSH4 − 11L
Apr 20at WSH9 − 4W
Apr 19at PHI4 − 2W
Apr 18at PHI3 − 1W
Apr 17at PHI9 − 0W
Apr 15vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 14vs MIA6 − 5W
Apr 13vs MIA4 − 10L
Apr 12vs CLE13 − 1W
Apr 11vs CLE0 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 21vs ATL11 − 4W
Apr 20vs ATL4 − 9L
Apr 19vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 18vs SF6 − 7L
Apr 17vs SF5 − 10L
Apr 16at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 15at PIT0 − 2L
Apr 14at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 13at PIT5 − 16L
Apr 12at MIL8 − 6W